Weekly Update: 31st January 2025

We have two major weather systems - flooding rain in northern Queensland, and extreme heat in southeastern Australia.

Watch the update:

1. Flooding rain in northern Queensland

A very persistent low (it has been there since last Sunday already) is likely to continue dragging moisture from the Pacific Ocean into the coast and turning it into widespread rain. This activity increases over the weekend, and may still continue through much of next week. Gradually this spreads inland with a "cold" and wet situation developing over interior parts of northern Queensland.

Totals over the next week have well over 300mm near the coast, north of Mackay, with even 25-50mm reaching as far inland as Mt Isa.

2. Extreme heat in southeastern Australia

Heat rapidly builds over the weekend as high pressure moves to the Tasman Sea, adding southeast Australia into the hot zone. Rather than just one day of extreme heat like the last temperature spike, this one persists day and night for several days in a row. Heatwave conditions (significantly above average both day and night) continue even in coastal areas from the weekend until Tuesday, and may continue inland for an extended period of time, as the cool change isn't a strong one.

3. Outlooks

The MJO is in the Australian region, and may persist until late February, enhancing the tropical activity for us. So these lengthy wet spells are likely to continue. Will they spread down into the south? Only if the weather pattern can tap into these huge reserves of moisture and sweep it down south.

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For the full rainfall outlook, you can always stay up to date on the Maps page. For the full seasonal outlook, you can stay up to date at Long Range. For the latest guidance specifically for your spot head to Forecast.

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In this series I'll take you through the drivers of our weather, highlighting any changes over time and things to watch out for (generally every Friday). It covers weather elements like temperature and rainfall, and how they are driven by moisture from the Pacific and Indian Oceans, as well as bursts of energy from low pressure (SAM and MJO).

See and hear my commentary as I take you through the weather pattern's effects on our rain and temperatures in detail over the next week, with a brief look at week 2 and beyond as well.

Plus what is driving our weather in the weeks and months ahead, with the latest on El Nino/La Nina, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), the Southern Annular Mode (SAM controls our weather systems), and the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO connects tropical moisture to our weather systems).

I update this commentary each week, generally on Friday's. Make sure you are signed up (free or a subscription) so you don't miss an update.

Stay up to date with the forecast specifically for your area in our hour by hour outlook for the next 10 days. Download our app for iPhone and Android.

As always, you can see each of these graphics as soon as they update, as well as more information about them under our Rain Outlook and Seasonal Outlook pages within Jane's Update, along with our Snow Forecast in the snow season.