As I write this at lunchtime on Wednesday (I write that statement because you should always check how old the information is before you act on it), we have Severe Cyclone Freddy off the northwest coast, and another tropical low off the northeast coast.

The main thing to take away from this is: both of these systems are unlikely to impact the mainland in the coming days.


The steering winds send both systems away from the coast, taking their dangerous rain, winds and storm surge with them.

The situation at 11am AEDT on Wednesday February 8th

Freddy is a severe cyclone as it has reached category 3. Guidance suggests it may deepen to a category 4. There are five categories in the scale. This would be a very serious situation if it was near or crossing the coast, but this is not the case with this particular storm.


The one off the Queensland coast is likely to be named Gabrielle or Herman, depending on whether another storm, located just off the western side of that map, is named first.


Guidance for the Queensland one shows it should rapidly intensify later on Wednesday, reaching category 3 on Thursday morning.


As the steering winds move it away from the coast, the dangerous elements are taken with the storm too - but it may impact Norfolk Island over the weekend.


The Queensland coast is impacted a little from this storm, in terms of strong to gale force wind gusts, and a bit of rain - but nothing like it would be if the storm was closer.


This rain and wind dissipates on Friday, and it’s back to sunshine and lighter winds.

It is interesting that we have not just one, but potentially three tropical cyclones around Australia this week. This is partly thanks to a climate driver known as the MJO:


A climate driver known as the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) has it’s pulse of energy in the green zone over the next week - encouraging tropical activity near Australia

Between November and April each year, when this signal enters the green zone, tropical cyclone activity is encouraged around Australia. But only for the top half of the nation, along the coastline, as these beasts need ocean temperatures of at least 26C to form or keep going.


The MJO guidance suggests the current pulse will end in mid February, with no sign of the next one yet (but forecasts only cover the next month).


With the two cyclones moving away from the coast, there isn’t any big increase in rain over parts of the nation - at least not in the next week.

The next four days show the usual monsoonal activity right up the top, and the effects of a trough over the eastern states with showers and storms, along with a large area of dry conditions:


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We have two cyclones on either side of the country, but the winds should steer them away from the mainland with limited impacts. This current period of increased cyclone risk should dissipate mid February.


8th February: A cyclone for each coast, but they shouldn’t impact the mainland

Jane's commentary on the big picture drivers of our weather, updated weekly on Friday's.

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The cold outbreak mentioned last Friday has hit the southeast with a complex low over TAS dragging wave after wave of wet weather over the southeast. The lines on this map are like a road that the wind follows, and those lines show that the air has come up from near Antarctica.

A trough is cutting through QLD with showers, rain and storms to it's east.

A high over the Bight pushes hot air from the desert down into southwest WA. 

In the southeast, those areas exposed to a westerly airflow pick up the biggest falls (in VIC: southwest, eastern Melbourne, western Gippsland, northeast ranges, in TAS: the west). There is no tropical moisture feed, so the activity dissipates as you go inland. 

The rain continues in QLD with the trough, spreading southwards over the next few days. Fuelled by tropical moisture from the Pacific Ocean, this has the potential for heavy falls.

The trough dips further southwards next week, so the showers, rain and storms head with it, along with the potential for heavy falls. It only just comes in to VIC's northeast - most of the action is north of there. 

 for timing and movement of the rain, with each day in detail.

Stay ahead of what is most likely at your location by setting your 

 for more specific details - sent to your inbox every morning and/or evening. Try our 

 forecast too, to plan for the breaks in the weather. A forecast for 

 (to show how much to water crops) is on its way next week, with 

(MONDAY 6 TO SUNDAY 12 - from the Euro model):

This maps helps show that the west and SA continue drier than average, while the rain in the east is considered above average for this time of year. Far western NSW, and much of VIC miss out on the eastern rain.

NEXT WEEK TROPICAL LOW AND CYCLONE POTENTIAL 

Big signs of cyclone potential off the northwest coast, and big signs of cyclone potential well off the QLD coast. 

The rain leads to a continuation of the cooler than average weather - and the southeast and SA are included in that. However, from mid next week there is a warmer signal on all the models for several days - so I wouldn't blindly trust this output for SA and much of VIC. 

Check the day by day guidance for your spot 

WEEK TWO MAPS COMPARED TO AVERAGE (MONDAY 13 TO SUNDAY 19):

In the following week, the rain contracts back up into the far north. Much of QLD and NSW take a break!

WEEK 2 TROPICAL LOW AND CYCLONE POTENTIAL 

Cyclone potential continues off the northwest coast, with only a weak signal off QLD (there is also no rain signal in that part of QLD, so a cyclone is not likely)

Still no proper heat for QLD and eastern NSW. But the western heat signal does creep eastwards towards the southeast - making it through SA and into northwest VIC/far western NSW.

In order to make it rain you need two things to work together:

Let's begin by looking at the moisture part, in the tropical areas of the Indian and Pacific Oceans.

When the boxes have cool blues, and the waters around northern Australia have warm oranges, then tropical moisture is encouraged to push 

 Australia rather than away from it. When the boxes have warm oranges then tropical moisture is encouraged to push 

2023 is likely to bring a new set of global weather patterns, in very different phases from what they were for the past three years.

In 2022 both the Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean boxes were blue.

The Indian Ocean box transitioned to a lot of yellow, but has taken on more blue this week. The Pacific Ocean box is still predominantly cool blue, but continuing to show pockets of warm yellow. 

See the next maps for projections of the boxed areas and their impacts.

When the signal is in the bottom green area, then tropical moisture is pushed towards Australia from the Pacific Ocean (known as La Nina). When the signal is in the top brown area, then tropical moisture is pushed away Australia over the Pacific Ocean (known as El Nino).

The index moves from near the green area on the chart (ie a blue Pacific box on the sea temp map) to near the brown area (ie a yellow Pacific box) over the next few months.

During January, all 8 of the 8 models had projected the index to be in or near the brown area by winter. 

This week, one model (blue - USA) separates from the others and doesn't head as far into the brown. This is something to watch, we will see if it continues during February.

If the signal does go near or into the brown zone, we enter a new phase: 

Instead of excessive amounts of tropical moisture being pushed towards Australia, that moisture supply is limited or pushed away from us. 

Instead of excessive moisture fuelling our troughs, lows and fronts, bringing heavier than usual rain, we transition into a phase where our troughs, lows and fronts have reduced rain as there is limited moisture to feed them.

This is likely to impact us from winter (and potentially spring and summer if the index doesn't take a turn [we can't see that far yet]).

When the signal is in the bottom green area, then tropical moisture is pushed towards Australia from the Indian Ocean (known as a negative Indian Ocean Dipole [IOD] - the 'La Nina of the Indian Ocean'). When the signal is in the top brown area, then tropical moisture is pushed away Australia over the Indian Ocean (known as a positive IOD - the 'El Nino of the Indian Ocean').

The Indian Ocean took a similar turn... but it's getting there faster.

The index left the green area (ie a blue Indian box) in November, and is projected to be neutral or near the brown area (ie a yellow Indian box) for the next few months.

5 models like in or near the brown threshold. 1 model remains neutral.

Just like in the Pacific, instead of excessive amounts of tropical moisture being pushed towards Australia, that moisture supply is limited or pushed away from us. 

This could impact us in autumn (resulting in a later and weaker autumn break) and in winter (and potentially spring if the index doesn't take a turn [we can't see that far yet]. This index doesn't impact us in summer).

We look at SAM and MJO to see what low pressure is likely to do.

In this series I'll take you through the drivers of our weather, highlighting any changes over time and things to watch out for (every Friday). It covers weather elements like temperature and rainfall, and how they are driven by moisture from the Pacific and Indian Oceans, as well as bursts of energy from low pressure (SAM and MJO).









3rd Febraury Seasonal and Rain Update - more big wet for QLD/E NSW in the next week. Then a February dry signal.

The potential for a cyclone that I highlighted last Friday didn't quite reach cyclone strength, and the low is now over northwestern Australia. It's juicy, and drives the nation's weather over the next week with a feed of tropical moisture.

A strong cold front (currently over the Bight) grabs that rain and funnels it down into  southern Australia, moving eastwards, but... high pressure gets in the way for much of the southeast, with limited rain for southeast SA, southwest NSW, western and central VIC and all of TAS.

The rain then reintensifies over eastern Australia with troughs and a low.

Then the southeast may see a Southern Ocean low bring a cold outbreak at the very end of the period (late next week). Potentially cold enough for alpine snow.

Before you gaffaw (as I'm sure my 7NEWS colleagues will do when I mention that in the news tonight :) ) alpine snow is possible in any month of the year, it just needs the right weather system to come up from the southern ocean, and high pressure blocks these for much of the time during the summer months.

(MONDAY 30 TO SUNDAY 5 - from the Euro model):

From last week's update: In late January/early February a rain signal returns. See the MJO below for more on why the signal comes back. This map has the earmarks of: an area of rain over the northwest, with some of it carried down into central AUS, northern VIC, NSW and southern QLD on a trough/low/cold front. It also shows a low off the coast bringing rain to northeast TAS. 

A version of that situation is occurring this week, but the high is in the way for it to do much for southeast SA, southwest NSW, much of VIC and TAS.

Then the models have that Southern Ocean low near TAS late next week, increasing the rain (and alpine snow) over TAS and southern VIC.

Cyclone potential is only off the northwest coast next week (not NT or QLD).

That's a very large blue (cooler than average) signal. It'll also be a very large area of rain moving through that suppresses the temperature. Cooler air up north means that even if the south has a northerly wind, it's not as hot as it normally would be.

Hotter than average weather is expected in the southwest, away from the influence of these rain systems. 

WEEK TWO MAPS COMPARED TO AVERAGE (MONDAY 6 TO SUNDAY 12):

In the following week, QLD continues to get the rain, along with the tropics. Much of the south has either a weak or weakly dry signal.

Tropical cyclone potential is increased off the northwest coast. The rain outlook shows that it would move away from the coast rather than on to it. 

There is a weak cyclone potential signal well off the coast of QLD.

Cool air lingers over much of central and eastern Australia. There may be the odd hot day in the south but this signal indicates it wouldn't be a stretch of them, as the cool days outweigh any heat overall.

Hotter than average weather continues in the southwest.

The Indian Ocean box continues to progress towards warm yellow each week. The Pacific Ocean box is still predominantly cool blue, but starting to show pockets of warm yellow. 

The cool blues off northern AUS are thanks to recent rain temporarily cooling the oceans surface.

All 8 of the 8 models have the index in or near the brown area by winter. 

The Indian Ocean is taking a similar turn... but getting there faster.

The index left the green area (ie a blue Indian box) in November, and is projected to be near the brown area (ie a yellow Indian box) for the next few months.