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 I see on the horizon? | 25 September 2023

Jane's video update walking you through the highs and lows of our weather and what to be on the look out for over the next few days. 
We look at rain and temperatures Australia-wide, plus I shine a spotlight on a few locations to help understand the weather in detail.

Latest Video Update

Jane's commentary on the big picture drivers of our weather, updated weekly, generally on Friday's.

Hear my commentary as I take you through moving versions of the following maps.

Hot and Dry, Hot and Dry... that's generally what we are looking at over the next few weeks and the months ahead.

With El Nino in the Pacific and a Positive Indian Ocean Dipole, we've lost our source of moisture and a pool of heat has developed over the interior.

See the timing of when the cooler and/or wet weather can pop up in between the hot and dry.

 for detailed timing and movement of the rain.

(MONDAY 25 to SUNDAY 1 - from the Euro model):

 for more on what this does for the alps.

Check the day by day guidance for your spot 

WEEK TWO MAPS COMPARED TO AVERAGE (MONDAY 2 TO SUNDAY 8):

In order to make it rain you need two things to work together:

Let's begin by looking at the moisture part, in the tropical areas of the Indian and Pacific Oceans.

When the boxes have cool blues, and the waters around northern Australia have warm oranges, then tropical moisture is encouraged to push 

 Australia (known as La Nina in the Pacific, and a negative Indian Ocean Dipole [IOD]). 

When the boxes have warm oranges, and the waters around northern Australia have cool blues, then tropical moisture is encouraged to push 

 from Australia (known as El Nino in the Pacific, and a positive IOD)

When the signal is in the bottom green area, then tropical moisture is pushed 

 Australia from the Pacific Ocean (known as La Nina). When the signal is in the top brown area, then tropical moisture is pushed 

 from Australia over the Pacific Ocean (known as El Nino).

A strong El Nino can repeat itself the following spring and summer (as once you have all that warm water out there it takes a lot of energy to change it to the opposite phase).

 Australia from the Indian Ocean (known as a negative Indian Ocean Dipole [IOD] - the 'La Nina of the Indian Ocean'). When the signal is in the top brown area, then tropical moisture is pushed 

 from Australia over the Indian Ocean (known as a positive IOD - the 'El Nino of the Indian Ocean').

The IOD naturally decays each year at the end of spring, and doesn't impact us over summer. The IOD is more volatile from year to year, but can be influenced by what is occurring in the Pacific and follow suit (ie both push moisture towards or away from us, together).

We look at SAM and MJO to see what low pressure is likely to do.

- in the bottom green we are more likely to see fast moving 

 coming up from the Southern Ocean and crossing the south. They usually only hit one area with force... if they peak in Perth they slide over Melbourne, while if they peak in Melbourne they missed Perth. 

- in the top green we are more likely to see 

. When these are fed by tropical moisture (in a La Nina or negative IOD, or when the waters off northern Australia are warmer than average) they can produce big, widespread rainfalls for those in their path. When there is limited tropical moisture (in an El Nino or positive IOD, or when the waters off northern Australia are cooler than average) then it doesn't matter how powerful the low pressure is, there is less rain overall (locally heavy falls, but not widespread). 

: To get strong cold fronts (the main thing that brings snow to the alps) it is better if this index dips into the bottom green area. 

Troughs and lows are more likely to spread rain further inland from the far south which is more likely to occur in the top green area.

The alps can see snow in the top green area, but the systems are more likely to be missing a key ingredient: cold air. The alps can also miss out on that key ingredient (cold air) in the bottom green, if the fronts don't peak over the southeast. 

This index is best used to understand where we are now, rather than where we are heading, as the long term forecast usually favours neutral. 

The MJO is a pulse of tropical energy, and whenever that comes near Australia (in or near the green zone) it encourages low pressure and moisture to work together. When it is away from Australia (the brown zone) it can suppress this relationship.  

In El Nino and a Positive IOD it doesn't have much influence, as it can't create rain if there is no source of moisture. In La Nina and a Negative IOD it has a huge influence, turning that vast source of moisture into widespread rain and potential flooding. 

During the monsoon and cyclone season (November to April) it can encourage the formation of tropical cyclones near Australia when in or near the green zone.

In this series I'll take you through the drivers of our weather, highlighting any changes over time and things to watch out for (generally every Friday). It covers weather elements like temperature and rainfall, and how they are driven by moisture from the Pacific and Indian Oceans, as well as bursts of energy from low pressure (SAM and MJO). 









22nd September 2023 - Seasonal and Rain Video Update

The southeast is currently in a long stretch of warmer than average (sometimes significantly warmer) weather as shown here last week. It ends mid next week, and it turns cold enough for alpine snow... but the next warm up isn't far behind it.

Meanwhile, onshore winds continue in QLD, so that Sydney heats up from Saturday but Brisbane doesn't get there until mid next week.

In the southwest high pressure comes in and shifts most of the rain southwards.

Week 2 (from 25th Sept) - the warm and dry signal continues for much of the country - so the next high will move eastwards, potentially bringing another extended warm and dry stretch.

(MONDAY 18 to SUNDAY 24 - from the Euro model):

WEEK TWO MAPS COMPARED TO AVERAGE (MONDAY 25 TO SUNDAY 1):