 using key indicators and forecasts to tell us if it is more likely to be 

 (from the Pacific or Indian Ocean), and 

. Conversely, if there is a lack of tropical moisture, it doesn't matter how many low pressure systems move through, they can't produce much rain.

Last Summer and now Autumn, the Pacific Ocean pushed extra moisture towards Australia (La Nina). When low pressure turns up there is heavier than usual rain in Australia's north and east.

All models are now in Consensus for Winter and Spring. The Indian Ocean should push extra moisture towards Australia (a negative IOD). When low pressure turns up that brings soaking rain to Australia's south.

The outlook for next Summer is starting to appear on the models. There are chances that we only weakly come out of La Nina in Winter, then go back in during Spring, making it our third La Nina Summer in a row. No model likes El Nino, all models are either La Nina or close to it, and the ocean map really shows that the cold blue in the Pacific really isn't going anywhere.

Follow the maps below to see the latest. Automatically updated daily to weekly.

Updates daily (showing how much warmer or cooler than usual the top of the oceans are)

 water in the boxes pushes tropical moisture 

 water around the top half of Australia helps push tropical moisture 

 Australia. Cool water means less moisture. 

The temperature of the Pacific Ocean box, and forecasts for a range of models over the next six months.

 area, the Pacific Ocean should push tropical moisture 

 Australia (known as La Nina). When low pressure moves through it helps bring flooding rain, most felt in northern and eastern AUS.

 from Australia (known as El Nino). All parts of AUS are generally drier than average, even if low pressure is nearby.

The temperature of the Indian Ocean, and forecasts for a range of models over the next six months.

 area, the Indian Ocean should push tropical moisture 

 Australia (known as a negative Indian Ocean Dipole [IOD]). When low pressure moves through it helps bring soaking rain to southern AUS - this area has chances of a wetter Winter and Spring.

 from Australia (known as a positive Indian Ocean Dipole [IOD]). All parts of AUS are generally drier than average, even if low pressure is nearby.

 encourages lows and troughs over inland parts, and weaker cold fronts. Makes it drier than average in southern Australia as there are no cold fronts, unless a low can wander down. Encourages lows and troughs to linger in NSW and QLD, and if there is extra tropical moisture from the Pacific Ocean (see the index above) then that leads to flooding rain when a low is nearby.

 encourages stronger cold fronts. This helps southern Australia see rain, but it only spreads inland if there is a connection to tropical moisture from the Pacific or Indian Ocean (see indexes above). If these are dry, the cold fronts can't bring much rain. 

High pressure can 'get in the way' no matter what the signal is. We can't all be covered in low pressure, there are highs in between.

Cold fronts only hit one area. If a strong front hits Perth, it won't do much for Melbourne... if a strong front hits Melbourne, it missed Perth.

Inland troughs, and lows, are the ones that produce the big wet weather. But you have to be 

Weird graph, but bear with me! This shows the path of a pulse of tropical energy that helps push that tropical moisture around.

 Australia. If you are affected by low pressure it helps intensify the rainfall even further. In the tropics it encourages periods of wet weather.

 from Australia. If you are affected by low pressure the falls can be lighter than usual. The tropics generally enter a quiet period even if it is in the wet season. 

Updates Mondays and Thursdays, late afternoon

Summer/Autumn were 'La Nina' ie the Pacific Ocean pushed extra moisture, so when there is low pressure in eastern/northern AUS it floods. This Winter/Spring is likely to see the Indian Ocean pushing extra moisture. So... there is potential for a wetter than average Winter/Spring in southern AUS. And… early signs of yet another La Nina next Summer. 

The latest on La Nina/El Nino, IOD, SAM and MJO - all things that drive our weather

We have completed a few snow related updates at 

, but there is still a bit more to do before the snow season begins. Mountain locations will be soon be summarised into a snow forecast page with each mountains projected snow for the next 3 and 7 days, along with my commentary.

Elevations have been fixed for the following locations.

 Now when you enter that mountain (or the variation on its name [ie Hotham/Hotham Heights or Mt Baw Baw/Baw Baw Alpine Resort]) into search it will show temperatures and snow for the following elevations:

Macedon Ranges 1000m (Mt Macedon [town] 620m)

Reedy Creek Cobungra [Hotham Airport] 1300m

Mt Mawson (will be fixed later today) 1250m

(Buller and Falls work if you search but not if you save [it's a lat long problem] - will be fixed later today)

 still needs improving, as do temperature 

 will be sorted early tomorrow - for some reason "severe frost" temperatures trump all other icons. I missed it in the test over summer as nowhere was cold enough...

Any other locations you want added, please let me know.

Three models side by side (AUST, CANADA, USA).

 but we are working on getting funding for the data.

Changing to snow at 1700m around 9-11pm tonight.

Changing to snow at 1850m around midnight-1am:

Jane's commentary will return for the 2022 season. We've made some improvements ahead of the season, with a few more tweaks to come soon.

Snow Forecasts launching June 10th

Updates from Jane during the snow season. Discussions on snow in the week ahead for the mainland Australian Alps.

Snow Forecast

The current blend of all the global weather models as to how much rain 

model output for any location, hour by hour

, from the Jane's Weather Consensus by clicking on the 

. Updated twice daily around 7am/7pm AEST:

. By nature they are hit and miss.. ie the potential for rain is there, but 

. The next town/suburb could have a heavy downpour with a storm right overhead, while you miss out or just get the edge of that storm. Or.. you could have the heavy downpour, potentially even heavier than this image indicates.

 The rain forecast shows the area they are possible, and how much they could bring, not every spot that will get the showers/storms.

But... it also shows us the potential for 

 (not hit and miss). The totals may not be as impressive as the intense rain in showers and storms, but more of the area gets a drink.

Jane takes you through what rainfall is possible each day across the country. Daily maps for the next five days, then a general look at what rain is possible after that. 

Get the latest analysis straight from Jane Bunn

Jane’s easy to understand commentary on what is most likely to occur in the next week and months ahead. If you’re heading to the snow, don’t miss her daily forecast during the winter months.

Snow Forecasts launching June 10th

Jane's commentary will return for the 2022 season. We've made some improvements ahead of the season, with a few more tweaks to come soon.

Monday 16th May, 3:14 AM

Snow Forecast

Updates from Jane during the snow season. Discussions on snow in the week ahead for the mainland Australian Alps.

Monday 16th May, 2:06 AM

A look at the weather around the country

Jane takes you through what rainfall is possible each day across the country. Daily maps for the next five days, then a general look at what rain is possible after that.

Monday 16th May, 12:00 AM

Jane's Weather Community

Share your thoughts on the weather.