Jane's Weekly Update: 25th July 2025

It's weekly update time, and what a time to give an update. The big juicy northwest cloudband is in full swing, connecting a feed of tropical moisture with a huge cold front and a cut off low - all slowly moving eastwards giving a huge part of Australia a soak.

This brings a widespread 15 to 25 mm, but generally 25 to 50 mm to a huge area. All on the western side of the ranges (with the east being the dry side this time).

It began in the west, moving across central parts today, then into the east over the weekend - and when this is done it will have affected every single Australian state and territory.

This is the big one, but there is yet another system to follow next week. Likely to take a slightly northern path (see the video at the end of this article). This one doesn't have the same big moisture feed but it is likely to bring a nice follow up.

The current weather system is a classic, textbook example of what a Negative Indian Ocean Dipole can do for us.

The Negative phase is the Indian Ocean equivalent of a Pacific Ocean La Nina (just without the fancy name). These phases actively push moisture towards Australia. We see these phases when the boxes in the Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly turn blue.

That is just one part of the rainfall equation though - you also need instability to turn that into rain - and the rain only affects those that are in the right spot for that weather system.

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For an in depth look at all that is happening with our weather, here is my weekly update video. 17 minutes today as there is a lot to cover!

In this series I'll take you through the drivers of our weather, highlighting any changes over time and things to watch out for (generally every Friday). It covers weather elements like temperature and rainfall, and how they are driven by moisture from the Pacific and Indian Oceans, as well as bursts of energy from low pressure (SAM and MJO).

See and hear my commentary as I take you through the weather pattern's effects on our rain and temperatures in detail over the next week, with a brief look at week 2 and beyond as well.

Plus what is driving our weather in the weeks and months ahead, with the latest on El Nino/La Nina, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), the Southern Annular Mode (SAM controls our weather systems), and the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO connects tropical moisture to our weather systems).

I update this commentary each week, generally on Friday's. Make sure you are signed up (free or a subscription) so you don't miss an update.

Stay up to date with the forecast specifically for your area in our hour by hour outlook for the next 10 days. Download our app for iPhone and Android.

As always, you can see each of these graphics as soon as they update, as well as more information about them under our Rain Outlook and Seasonal Outlook pages within Jane's Update, along with our Snow Forecast in the snow season.