Don't miss an update! Sign up for Jane's Weather and have it 

This week we take a look at how much warmer than average the waters to the north and east of Australia are - this is a significant source of moisture

When that meets up with low pressure it delivers heavy than average rain

The MJO shows us that this pattern is set to continue for the rest of the year and into early January

However... it's the weather pattern - where the lows, highs and troughs are - that determine who sees this rain and who misses out

This pattern is getting a shake up over the weekend - see which areas of the country are in the significant rain zone next

We also take a look at not just week 1 and 2, but also week 3 as that's Christmas! 

Haven't experienced all we have to offer yet at Jane's Weather? Sign up for a 

See and hear my commentary as I take you through the weather pattern's effects on our rain and temperatures in detail over the next week, with a brief look at week 2 and beyond as well. 

Plus what is driving our weather in the weeks and months ahead, with the latest on El Nino/La Nina, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), the Southern Annular Mode (SAM controls our weather systems), and the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO connects tropical moisture to our weather systems).

I update this commentary each week, generally on Friday's. Make sure you are signed up (free or a subscription) so you don't miss an update. 

Stay up to date with the forecast specifically for your area in our 

hour by hour outlook for the next 10 days

As always, you can see each of these graphics as soon as they update, as well as more information about them under our 

 pages within Jane's Update, along with our 

For further insights specifically for agriculture, to improve the utilisation of your resources, tailored to any Australian location, please 

 your membership. You can take advantage of our 

Upgrade to see full insights to help plan the best use for your resources:

evapotranspiration to efficiently manage available water for crops

full ten day hour by hour outlooks, all variables, and all model data

In this series I'll take you through the drivers of our weather, highlighting any changes over time and things to watch out for (generally every Friday). It covers weather elements like temperature and rainfall, and how they are driven by moisture from the Pacific and Indian Oceans, as well as bursts of energy from low pressure (SAM and MJO). 









Weekly Update: 6th December 2024

We are still in a pattern that pushes tropical moisture from the oceans to our north, into low pressure, turning that into widespread rain

The weather pattern is very stagnant - and one reason is high pressure in a jelly bean shape to the south, cradling all the lows to make everything linger longer

Huge falls over much of eastern Australia, while the southwest of the country misses out - see the projected totals and where the rain is likely day by day 

This lingers into December as we go through what's happening next week, and the following week, and a look at summer as a whole

I update this commentary each week, generally on Friday's. Make sure you are 

 (free or a subscription) so you don't miss an update. 

Weekly Update: 29th November 2024

A widespread soaking rain system impacts Australia over the next week

Fed by moisture from the waters off northwest Australia and the Tasman Sea and a little from the waters off Queensland (as we will continue to see this summer)

Slow moving troughs turn this moisture into rain that gradually spreads through huge areas (see the day by day maps 

One system over the weekend into early next week, potentially joined by a second system that will keep the rain coming well into late next week

The drivers: MJO entering our neck of the woods, we're in a negative IOD (reflected in the warm water off the northwest), the Tasman Sea is incredibly warm, and the Pacific is weakly sending us moisture -> all adding up to lots of moisture for low pressure to turn into rain this summer

Weekly Update: 22nd November 2024

 using key indicators and forecasts to tell us if it is more likely to be 

 (from the Pacific or Indian Ocean), and 

. Conversely, if there is a lack of tropical moisture, it doesn't matter how many low pressure systems move through, they can't produce much rain.

Follow the maps below to see the latest. Automatically updated daily to weekly.

Updates every time a model updates, from our AI Forecast 

Updates daily (showing how much warmer or cooler than usual the water at the top of the oceans are)

 water in the boxes pushes tropical moisture 

 water around the top half of Australia helps push tropical moisture 

Updates daily (showing the actual temperature of the water at the top of the ocean)

Observations update weekly on Monday evenings, forecasts update monthly around the 12th

The temperature of the Pacific Ocean box, and forecasts from only the BoM model over the next six months.

 area, the Pacific Ocean should push tropical moisture 

 Australia (known as La Nina). When low pressure moves through it helps bring flooding rain, most felt in northern and eastern AUS.

 from Australia (known as El Nino). This leads to drier than average conditions, even if low pressure is nearby, as there is less moisture available to feed them.

The temperature of the Indian Ocean box, and forecasts from only the BoM model over the next six months.

 area, the Indian Ocean should push tropical moisture 

 Australia (known as a negative Indian Ocean Dipole [IOD]). When low pressure moves through it helps bring soaking rain to southern AUS in Autumn, Winter and Spring.

 from Australia (known as a positive Indian Ocean Dipole [IOD]). This leads to drier than average conditions, even if low pressure is nearby, as there is less moisture available to feed them.

This index naturally decays to neutral each Summer, thanks to the monsoon. 

For more on understanding what drives our climate and therefore controls our day to day weather pattern, see 

 by Agriculture Victoria. Playful animations that show these drivers come to life. 

 encourages lows and troughs that can be slow moving (and when they are fed by tropical moisture they bring significant rain for those in their path), but over summer it encourages high pressure across far southern Australia, limiting how far south the lows and troughs can travel and bring rain. Positive also encourages the cold fronts to take a path over the Southern Ocean (rather than over southern Australia) limiting rain over far southern Australia at any time of the year. 

 encourages stronger cold fronts to come up from the Southern Ocean and cross southern Australia. This helps Australia's southern coast see rain, but it only spreads inland if high pressure doesn't block tropical moisture from the Pacific or Indian Ocean connecting with the cold front. 

High pressure can 'get in the way' no matter what the signal is. We can't all be covered in low pressure, there are highs in between.

Cold fronts only hit one area. If a strong front hits Perth, it won't do much for Melbourne... if a strong front hits Melbourne, it missed Perth.

Slow moving troughs and lows are the ones that produce the big wet weather as they bring rain to an area for longer. But the location of the low or trough has a huge impact on who gets the rain. 

those areas on or east of the trough get the rain

Weird graph, but bear with me! This shows the path of a pulse of tropical energy that helps push that tropical moisture around.

 Australia. If you are affected by low pressure it helps intensify the rainfall even further. In the tropics it encourages extended periods of wet weather in the wet season. Further south it encourages tropical moisture to meet up with low pressure.

 from Australia. If you are affected by low pressure the falls can be lighter than usual, even in La Nina or a negative IOD. The Australian tropics generally enter a quiet period even if it is in the wet season. 

The chance of unusually high maximum temperatures, amongst the hottest 20% of weeks for this time of year.

The latest on La Nina/El Nino, IOD, SAM and MJO - all things that drive our weather. A discussion on the Pacific and Indian Ocean's (whether they are in a seasonal phase where they encourage tropical moisture to be sent towards or away from Australia), as well as the long range indicators of how the pressure systems may behave to turn that moisture into rain. 