Weekly Update: 28th February 2025

Most eyes will be on Cyclone Alfred over the next week, possibly week and a half. This is a very long lasting cyclone, off the Queensland coast - with some guidance this morning suggesting an impact on the southeast Queensland (or possibly far northern NSW) coast late next week or next weekend.

We go through how to see when we have high confidence in the path and impact of this beast.

The autumn outlook is out from BoM, we unpack that discussing influences from the MJO, Pacific and Indian Oceans and the waters around us.

And we take a close look at Brisbane, and what the guidance is saying today about the future impact from Cyclone Alfred, along with our whip around the country.

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Watch the update:

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For the full rainfall outlook, you can always stay up to date on the Maps page. For the full seasonal outlook, you can stay up to date at Long Range. For the latest guidance specifically for your spot head to Forecast.

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In this series I'll take you through the drivers of our weather, highlighting any changes over time and things to watch out for (generally every Friday). It covers weather elements like temperature and rainfall, and how they are driven by moisture from the Pacific and Indian Oceans, as well as bursts of energy from low pressure (SAM and MJO).

See and hear my commentary as I take you through the weather pattern's effects on our rain and temperatures in detail over the next week, with a brief look at week 2 and beyond as well.

Plus what is driving our weather in the weeks and months ahead, with the latest on El Nino/La Nina, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), the Southern Annular Mode (SAM controls our weather systems), and the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO connects tropical moisture to our weather systems).

I update this commentary each week, generally on Friday's. Make sure you are signed up (free or a subscription) so you don't miss an update.

Stay up to date with the forecast specifically for your area in our hour by hour outlook for the next 10 days. Download our app for iPhone and Android.

As always, you can see each of these graphics as soon as they update, as well as more information about them under our Rain Outlook and Seasonal Outlook pages within Jane's Update, along with our Snow Forecast in the snow season.