Weekly Update: 22nd November 2024

Highlights:

• A widespread soaking rain system impacts Australia over the next week
• Fed by moisture from the waters off northwest Australia and the Tasman Sea and a little from the waters off Queensland (as we will continue to see this summer)
• Slow moving troughs turn this moisture into rain that gradually spreads through huge areas (see the day by day maps here)
• One system over the weekend into early next week, potentially joined by a second system that will keep the rain coming well into late next week
• The drivers: MJO entering our neck of the woods, we're in a negative IOD (reflected in the warm water off the northwest), the Tasman Sea is incredibly warm, and the Pacific is weakly sending us moisture -> all adding up to lots of moisture for low pressure to turn into rain this summer
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In this series I'll take you through the drivers of our weather, highlighting any changes over time and things to watch out for (generally every Friday). It covers weather elements like temperature and rainfall, and how they are driven by moisture from the Pacific and Indian Oceans, as well as bursts of energy from low pressure (SAM and MJO).

See and hear my commentary as I take you through the weather pattern's effects on our rain and temperatures in detail over the next week, with a brief look at week 2 and beyond as well.

Plus what is driving our weather in the weeks and months ahead, with the latest on El Nino/La Nina, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), the Southern Annular Mode (SAM controls our weather systems), and the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO connects tropical moisture to our weather systems).

I update this commentary each week, generally on Friday's. Make sure you are signed up (free or a subscription) so you don't miss an update.

Stay up to date with the forecast specifically for your area in our hour by hour outlook for the next 10 days. Download our app for iPhone and Android.

As always, you can see each of these graphics as soon as they update, as well as more information about them under our Rain Outlook and Seasonal Outlook pages within Jane's Update, along with our Snow Forecast in the snow season.