Weekly Update: 24th January 2025

‍A persistent weather pattern begins on Sunday and lasts through much of next week, continuously pushing rain into the northern Queensland coast. Widespread falls over 200mm are likely.

We’re about to experience a type of weather system that isn’t as dramatic as a tropical cyclone or strong cold front, but still has a big impact on our weather.

The weather map won’t show much, just a boring looking trough on the northern Queensland coast.

But this will have a big impact for those of us living and working in the area, as it brings day after day of moist onshore winds, running into the instability of the trough, producing rainfall over a large area. 

Over the course of three to five days, beginning on Sunday, a large part of the northern Queensland coast is likely to see more than 200mm.

Within this activity there are always locally heavier falls - that could top out over 400mm.

Consensus amongst all the different model guidance is quite good at this stage (which gives us higher confidence in the outcome) and most keep the heavier falls north of Ayr:

But there is some guidance that suggests the threat zone for heavy rain could extend down to Yeppoon or possibly even Bundaberg - so if you are on the Queensland coast you need to watch this one carefully. Keep up to date with the latest model guidance as it calculates your threat based on new data, so you are informed of what is most likely to occur.

Meanwhile... much of southeastern Australia hits 40C at the end of the long weekend.

A heat trough is working its way eastwards across the country, and that will let temperatures rapidly jump up, before rapidly cooling down, in our latest temperature roller coaster.

Adelaide feels the heat first, followed by Hobart, Melbourne and Canberra - and both Melbourne and Hobart feel the most from the dramatic cool change. But before the cool relief arrives, Melbourne is likely to reach 40C, for the first time in two years. 

Further north, both Sydney and Brisbane look generally dry across the three day break - most of the showers and storms strike areas a little further inland. 

And Perth is experiencing an end to the heatwave, with milder conditions arriving just in time for the long weekend. 

For the full seasonal outlook, you can always check the maps at Long Range.

Haven't experienced all we have to offer yet at Jane's Weather? Sign up for a free 30 day trial now.

In this series I'll take you through the drivers of our weather, highlighting any changes over time and things to watch out for (generally every Friday). It covers weather elements like temperature and rainfall, and how they are driven by moisture from the Pacific and Indian Oceans, as well as bursts of energy from low pressure (SAM and MJO).

See and hear my commentary as I take you through the weather pattern's effects on our rain and temperatures in detail over the next week, with a brief look at week 2 and beyond as well.

Plus what is driving our weather in the weeks and months ahead, with the latest on El Nino/La Nina, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), the Southern Annular Mode (SAM controls our weather systems), and the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO connects tropical moisture to our weather systems).

I update this commentary each week, generally on Friday's. Make sure you are signed up (free or a subscription) so you don't miss an update.

Stay up to date with the forecast specifically for your area in our hour by hour outlook for the next 10 days. Download our app for iPhone and Android.

As always, you can see each of these graphics as soon as they update, as well as more information about them under our Rain Outlook and Seasonal Outlook pages within Jane's Update, along with our Snow Forecast in the snow season.