Jane's Weekly Update: 13th June 2025

Over the course of the next week we have three areas of focus in our weather: the southeast early in the stretch, the southwest with a few rain systems, and an out of season rain system for eastern Queensland, mainly in the north.

Meanwhile, week two (beginning on Monday 23rd June) has a glimmer of hope for rain in the southeast.

And... the Indian Ocean Dipole is swiftly heading into Negative - sending moisture into the south from the Indian Ocean, and potentially breaking up the high pressure dominance so it can actually be turned into rain.

OVER THE NEXT WEEK

SOUTHEAST

In the southeast we have a system crossing through on Saturday into Sunday. Southeastern SA does the best from this one, as it flops across the rest of the southeast delivering light falls.

The next one hits on Monday into Tuesday - better for southwestern to western facing parts of Victoria and Tasmania. That is code for 'if you are inland (or southeastern TAS) there won't be much'.

Neither of these are a repeat of the great long weekend rain system. There is no connection to tropical moisture and there isn't enough instability - and the systems move too fast.

It dries up later in the week, and the days should warm up.

SOUTHWEST

A few systems are set to move through, strongest on Tuesday and again on Friday/Saturday next week.

These are likely to deliver 25 to 50 mm for a large part of the southwest, with even 10 to 20 mm extending well inland.

QUEENSLAND RAIN

The frosty nights continue across the weekend (see my post on just how cold it is, and how unusual it is too) - it was -5.1C in Oakey this morning.

It thaws out early next week as cloud arrives and acts like a blanket. Rain develops in the north on Monday and heads southwards.

The heaviest falls are for the northern coastline (over 50mm of out of season rain), while it is much lighter in the southeast.

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WEEK TWO

As we move into week two, beginning on Monday 23rd June, there is a glimmer of hope for the southeast. The euro model is showing the potential for average to above average rain in the southeast.

Is this a sign that the Indian Ocean is starting to help us out, both with moisture and by breaking up the high pressure?

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INDIAN OCEAN DIPOLE

The Indian Ocean Index is swiftly falling, as we go from Positive to a projected Negative dipole.

A dipole is an imbalance - and our weather works to correct these - actively sending the built up of tropical moisture towards Australia.

That is just one part of the rain equation, we also need that moisture to feed into low pressure to turn it into rain.

A Positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) encourages a Positive Southern Annular Mode (SAM) too - and these result in high pressure dominating southern Australia.

A Negative IOD can work to remove this dominance - potentially letting the moisture actually connect with instability.

In short, we'll have the moisture, and we have a better chance of that being turned into rain for southern Australia.

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Here is the full update, perfect if you have 20 minutes to spare:

In this series I'll take you through the drivers of our weather, highlighting any changes over time and things to watch out for (generally every Friday). It covers weather elements like temperature and rainfall, and how they are driven by moisture from the Pacific and Indian Oceans, as well as bursts of energy from low pressure (SAM and MJO).

See and hear my commentary as I take you through the weather pattern's effects on our rain and temperatures in detail over the next week, with a brief look at week 2 and beyond as well.

Plus what is driving our weather in the weeks and months ahead, with the latest on El Nino/La Nina, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), the Southern Annular Mode (SAM controls our weather systems), and the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO connects tropical moisture to our weather systems).

I update this commentary each week, generally on Friday's. Make sure you are signed up (free or a subscription) so you don't miss an update.

Stay up to date with the forecast specifically for your area in our hour by hour outlook for the next 10 days. Download our app for iPhone and Android.

As always, you can see each of these graphics as soon as they update, as well as more information about them under our Rain Outlook and Seasonal Outlook pages within Jane's Update, along with our Snow Forecast in the snow season.