Weekly Update: 10th January 2025

My video updates will resume on Friday 17th January - but here is an update on the increasing risk of storms we face over this coming weekend:

We’re heading into a stormy weekend through much of the eastern states - as warm to hot conditions linger and humidity spreads into the southeast 

Eastern parts of Queensland, NSW and Victoria are in the firing line for hit and miss showers and thunderstorms, with the activity increasing as the weekend progresses. It spreads to Tasmania from Saturday, and western parts of Victoria and southwest NSW on Sunday - but the weather pattern doesn’t let it reach South Australia. 

The current weather pattern is the perfect recipe for this hit and miss activity.

High pressure is centred over the Tasman Sea between Australia and New Zealand. This spot pushes warm and humid air from the oceans to our east into the eastern states. This juicy air runs into trough lines which bring instability, making the air rise into cumulus then cumulonimbus if they can grow high enough. When we reach that cumulonimbus stage we get a thunderstorm. 

The troughs also act like a stop sign, not letting this moisture laden air travel any further westwards. The trough doesn’t move far enough to let this activity into South Australia, stopping it near the border as you can see in the day by day maps below.

Check the full details at Jane’s Weather to keep up to date on what the models are projecting for your spot. We break it down into an hour by hour storm risk to let you know when your spot is in the danger zone, and also when you are guaranteed a dry break.

For the full seasonal outlook, you can always check the maps at Long Range.

See you next week.

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In this series I'll take you through the drivers of our weather, highlighting any changes over time and things to watch out for (generally every Friday). It covers weather elements like temperature and rainfall, and how they are driven by moisture from the Pacific and Indian Oceans, as well as bursts of energy from low pressure (SAM and MJO).

See and hear my commentary as I take you through the weather pattern's effects on our rain and temperatures in detail over the next week, with a brief look at week 2 and beyond as well.

Plus what is driving our weather in the weeks and months ahead, with the latest on El Nino/La Nina, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), the Southern Annular Mode (SAM controls our weather systems), and the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO connects tropical moisture to our weather systems).

I update this commentary each week, generally on Friday's. Make sure you are signed up (free or a subscription) so you don't miss an update.

Stay up to date with the forecast specifically for your area in our hour by hour outlook for the next 10 days. Download our app for iPhone and Android.

As always, you can see each of these graphics as soon as they update, as well as more information about them under our Rain Outlook and Seasonal Outlook pages within Jane's Update, along with our Snow Forecast in the snow season.