Jane's Weekly Update: 28th November 2025

The leftover moisture from Cyclone Fina is meeting up with a trough over the centre of the country and it is set to spread significant rain across much of the southeast this weekend.

Southeast SA, much of Victoria, southern NSW and parts of Tasmania will see the most from this - and it is followed by another cold outbreak on Sunday to Tuesday. In total we are looking at 10 to 25 mm for the majority of the southeast, with large areas seeing 25 to 50 mm.

Meanwhile, the storm triggering troughs are taking a break over southeast Queensland on Friday, but it is set to return for Saturday. This is another outbreak of severe storms, but the activity should slowly contract northwards from Sunday into early next week. Then there is a lengthy stretch of settled weather, without the extreme heat.

The weather pattern has a shake up mid next week, and for the next two weeks there is a dry signal over much of the country.

The focus of wet weather shifts to the west during the week, while high pressure covers the east encouraging drier than average conditions. BoM's outlook suggests that drier than average is likely for the majority up until mid-December.

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Our temperatures are a different story.

A cold outbreak arrives in the southeast early next week, putting the southeast into a chill, and relieving the heatwave conditions further north. Instead the heat heads west, as high pressure moves through.

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But the reprieve doesn't last long, with the heat spreading back across to the east by the following week.

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In this series I'll take you through the drivers of our weather, highlighting any changes over time and things to watch out for (generally every Friday). It covers weather elements like temperature and rainfall, and how they are driven by moisture from the Pacific and Indian Oceans, as well as bursts of energy from low pressure (SAM and MJO).

See and hear my commentary as I take you through the weather pattern's effects on our rain and temperatures in detail over the next week, with a brief look at week 2 and beyond as well.

Plus what is driving our weather in the weeks and months ahead, with the latest on El Nino/La Nina, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), the Southern Annular Mode (SAM controls our weather systems), and the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO connects tropical moisture to our weather systems).

I update this commentary each week, generally on Friday's. Make sure you are signed up (free or a subscription) so you don't miss an update.

Stay up to date with the forecast specifically for your area in our hour by hour outlook for the next 10 days. Download our app for iPhone and Android.

As always, you can see each of these graphics as soon as they update, as well as more information about them under our Rain Outlook and Seasonal Outlook pages within Jane's Update, along with our Snow Forecast in the snow season.