Jane's Weekly Update: 21st November 2025

We have Cyclone Fina in the Top End this weekend, great conditions for cricket in Perth and a rain system crossing the southeast.

Cyclone Fina enters a favourable environment on Friday to restrengthen to a category 2. It is likely to cross close to Darwin on Saturday night. Fina may reach severe tropical cyclone strength - a category 3.

Once Cyclone Fina finally crosses the coast and/or dissipates over the ocean, we have the moist "leftovers" that may hang around for the next week or two. This can be picked up by any weather system crossing the south or east, giving it an extra injection of moisture, resulting in heavier than usual rain for those in the path.

In the southeast we have a rain system passing through over the weekend. The wet weather increases over eastern VIC and NSW, with lighter falls to the west.

The first day of the cricket in Perth is perfect. Then there is wet weather on the forecast for every day that follows. However, the timing of the wet weather is also perfect. It is only likely at night, the days in between should be all dry.

Looking at the drivers of our climate over the next few months, and the box in the Indian Ocean has nearly lost all of its blue colouring. That brings an end to the imbalance from the west to the east, and an end to our strongly negative Indian Ocean Dipole.

In the Pacific Ocean the box continues to 'turn more blue' while the waters off Queensland are warmer than average. This imbalance is a weak La Nina, and should encourage extra moisture to feed into Australia from the Pacific Ocean for the next few months. Whenever that runs into low pressure then there is heavier than usual rain for those in its path.

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In this series I'll take you through the drivers of our weather, highlighting any changes over time and things to watch out for (generally every Friday). It covers weather elements like temperature and rainfall, and how they are driven by moisture from the Pacific and Indian Oceans, as well as bursts of energy from low pressure (SAM and MJO).

See and hear my commentary as I take you through the weather pattern's effects on our rain and temperatures in detail over the next week, with a brief look at week 2 and beyond as well.

Plus what is driving our weather in the weeks and months ahead, with the latest on El Nino/La Nina, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), the Southern Annular Mode (SAM controls our weather systems), and the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO connects tropical moisture to our weather systems).

I update this commentary each week, generally on Friday's. Make sure you are signed up (free or a subscription) so you don't miss an update.

Stay up to date with the forecast specifically for your area in our hour by hour outlook for the next 10 days. Download our app for iPhone and Android.

As always, you can see each of these graphics as soon as they update, as well as more information about them under our Rain Outlook and Seasonal Outlook pages within Jane's Update, along with our Snow Forecast in the snow season.