Weekly Update: 7th February 2025

Today's update takes you through the current rain system in the north (and how it finally eases early next week) and how there is the potential for a sweep of rain to come down into the south later next week (low confidence as it is so far away but one to watch).

We go through the storms firing up in the southeast and the next heatwave next week.

The long range maps point towards La Nina slowly easing and neutral conditions - and the IOD showing both good and bad things as we go into the autumn break.

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Watch the update:

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1. Rain finally easing in northern Queensland

The rain doesn't completely disappear, but totals are much reduced beginning early next week.

The outlook for Wednesday has just 0-1mm in Townsville.

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2. Storms develop for eastern parts of the southeast

You need to be east of the trough line to be in the storm risk zone - and that should include much of eastern NSW and eastern VIC from Friday through to Monday.

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3. MJO leaving earlier than forecast

The MJO is in the Australian region (green zone) enhancing tropical activity. Earlier forecasts had it persisting until late February - now it's likely to move away by mid February and move to the other side of the world (brown zone) into early March.

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4. A new heatwave for the southeast

It begins early next week after a reprieve over the weekend, and last until a change arrives at the end of the week.

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5. The rain outlook for April/Autumn Break

... isn't great for those in South Australia and Victoria that missed out last year.

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For the full rainfall outlook, you can always stay up to date on the Maps page. For the full seasonal outlook, you can stay up to date at Long Range. For the latest guidance specifically for your spot head to Forecast.

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In this series I'll take you through the drivers of our weather, highlighting any changes over time and things to watch out for (generally every Friday). It covers weather elements like temperature and rainfall, and how they are driven by moisture from the Pacific and Indian Oceans, as well as bursts of energy from low pressure (SAM and MJO).

See and hear my commentary as I take you through the weather pattern's effects on our rain and temperatures in detail over the next week, with a brief look at week 2 and beyond as well.

Plus what is driving our weather in the weeks and months ahead, with the latest on El Nino/La Nina, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), the Southern Annular Mode (SAM controls our weather systems), and the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO connects tropical moisture to our weather systems).

I update this commentary each week, generally on Friday's. Make sure you are signed up (free or a subscription) so you don't miss an update.

Stay up to date with the forecast specifically for your area in our hour by hour outlook for the next 10 days. Download our app for iPhone and Android.

As always, you can see each of these graphics as soon as they update, as well as more information about them under our Rain Outlook and Seasonal Outlook pages within Jane's Update, along with our Snow Forecast in the snow season.