Weekly Update: 24th April 2025

The Autumn Break may spread rain across parts of the southeast this ANZAC day long weekend, as a low slowly moves through.

Some very dry parts are set to receive a good 25 to 50 mm soaking - mainly in a line from southwestern NSW through to Melbourne, and another area that crosses through central NSW.

Other also very dry parts are more likely to receive less than 10mm in another system that fails to deliver. It has moved too far east for South Australia before it slows down and delivers the steady rain, and there is the potential for a 'hole' to form over northeast Victoria and the eastern Riverina as the low moves over that spot, placing it in the 'dead zone' or 'cone of silence'... as the rain falls all around.

Here is the latest guidance as of midday on Thursday - with most of the rain passing through on Friday and Saturday:

The NSW coast to the ranges, and around the corner into East Gippsland, picks up yet another soaking over the next week, with falls right on the coastal fringe likely to exceed 50 to 75 mm.

If this is in fact the Autumn Break, you would expect that to be the flick of the switch - now we enter a period of regular rainfall as the weather systems return.

That may not be the case, for the second year in a row for the southeast.

The outlook for May isn't likely to deliver much, according to BoM's seasonal modelling:

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But things may pick up as we go through winter, especially for South Australia, southwest NSW and northwest Victoria:

This modelling from BoM is showing that juicy northwest cloudbands become more likely later in the season, as the Indian Ocean starts to encourage bigger rainfalls to spread across Australia:

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There is no video this week, but I will resume these next Friday.

In this series I'll take you through the drivers of our weather, highlighting any changes over time and things to watch out for (generally every Friday). It covers weather elements like temperature and rainfall, and how they are driven by moisture from the Pacific and Indian Oceans, as well as bursts of energy from low pressure (SAM and MJO).

See and hear my commentary as I take you through the weather pattern's effects on our rain and temperatures in detail over the next week, with a brief look at week 2 and beyond as well.

Plus what is driving our weather in the weeks and months ahead, with the latest on El Nino/La Nina, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), the Southern Annular Mode (SAM controls our weather systems), and the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO connects tropical moisture to our weather systems).

I update this commentary each week, generally on Friday's. Make sure you are signed up (free or a subscription) so you don't miss an update.

Stay up to date with the forecast specifically for your area in our hour by hour outlook for the next 10 days. Download our app for iPhone and Android.

As always, you can see each of these graphics as soon as they update, as well as more information about them under our Rain Outlook and Seasonal Outlook pages within Jane's Update, along with our Snow Forecast in the snow season.