Weekly Update: 14th March 2025

This weekly update will be focusing on drought in southern Australia - and a somewhat promising rain outlook.

If we look back over the past twelve months, conditions are incredibly dry across the following parts of southern Australia - mainly in southern SA and western VIC, but also parts of southern WA, and the west coast of TAS. There has been occasional rainfall, and some big downbursts (that perhaps caused more damage than help) but overall, rainfall totals are very much reduced from average.

In the past week, Cyclone Alfred produced huge rainfalls near the coast in southeast Queensland and northeast NSW. Some rain from the remains spread through parts of NSW and VIC, and even Tasmania, while the usual-to-reduced rainfall continued in the north.

Over the next week, there is a significant rain system.

Its timing is Friday to Monday - the early part of the outlook - which gives us higher confidence in it.

This rain system provides good falls for southern parts of WA on Friday, then moves to the southeast on Sunday into Monday.

Widespread 10 to 25 mm, with locally heavier falls, and significant falls in western Tasmania.

However, take a close look at the map - much of South Australia's southeast misses out, along with northern Victoria.

Looking further ahead, and next week (beginning Monday 17th) is looking drier than average across much of southern Australia. Rain systems further north may tease the south at times, but high pressure is likely to get in the way and not let the rain through.

But, looking ahead to week two (beginning Monday 24th March) paints a different picture. There is a chance that a big rain system from the north will sweep down into the south, across South Australia, Victoria, southern NSW and northeast Tasmania.

This is thanks to the MJO returning to Australia after an extended break (a pulse of energy that travels around the tropics enhancing rainfall), and lining up with a proper weather system to funnel that rain southwards.

As always, guidance that is more than a week away needs to be treated with caution. There are a lot of things that need to line up to allow this rainfall to occur. But it is one to watch closely as we approach this window.

For the full rainfall outlook, you can always stay up to date on the Maps page, seeing day by day guidance. For the full seasonal outlook, you can stay up to date at Long Range. For the latest guidance specifically for your spot head to Forecast.

Haven't experienced all we have to offer yet at Jane's Weather? Sign up for a free 30 day trial now.

In this series I'll take you through the drivers of our weather, highlighting any changes over time and things to watch out for (generally every Friday). It covers weather elements like temperature and rainfall, and how they are driven by moisture from the Pacific and Indian Oceans, as well as bursts of energy from low pressure (SAM and MJO).

See and hear my commentary as I take you through the weather pattern's effects on our rain and temperatures in detail over the next week, with a brief look at week 2 and beyond as well.

Plus what is driving our weather in the weeks and months ahead, with the latest on El Nino/La Nina, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), the Southern Annular Mode (SAM controls our weather systems), and the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO connects tropical moisture to our weather systems).

I update this commentary each week, generally on Friday's. Make sure you are signed up (free or a subscription) so you don't miss an update.

Stay up to date with the forecast specifically for your area in our hour by hour outlook for the next 10 days. Download our app for iPhone and Android.

As always, you can see each of these graphics as soon as they update, as well as more information about them under our Rain Outlook and Seasonal Outlook pages within Jane's Update, along with our Snow Forecast in the snow season.