Weekly Update: 14th February 2025

In the next week we have a cold outbreak with alpine snow (yes, it is still summer!) which knocks out the heat across southeastern Australia, right up into southern Queensland. This will be a lengthy spell of below average temperatures, before the next heat sweeps back in late next week/weekend.

Severe TC Zelia, category 5, crosses the Pilbara coast near Port Hedland today. Once it has moved inland it becomes an area of rain which is always of interest to southern Australia. The weather pattern is likely to send it to the southwest this time.

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Watch the update:

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1. Cold Outbreak

Showers and storms cross NSW and southeast QLD over the next few days, then clear, as colder air spreads right through the southeast.

It may be summer but we have had snow fall in the alps in every month of the year, we just need the right weather system to make it happen.

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2. The remains of Zelia head for the southwest

In order to get the cold outbreak over the southeast we need an extended period with a high over the Bight. By giving the southeast a break from the heat, it is naturally not letting the left over rain from the cyclone spread through - pushing it into the southwest.

The east coast has a round of showers and storms, clearing once the cooler air spreads through this weekend.

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For the full rainfall outlook, you can always stay up to date on the Maps page. For the full seasonal outlook, you can stay up to date at Long Range. For the latest guidance specifically for your spot head to Forecast.

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In this series I'll take you through the drivers of our weather, highlighting any changes over time and things to watch out for (generally every Friday). It covers weather elements like temperature and rainfall, and how they are driven by moisture from the Pacific and Indian Oceans, as well as bursts of energy from low pressure (SAM and MJO).

See and hear my commentary as I take you through the weather pattern's effects on our rain and temperatures in detail over the next week, with a brief look at week 2 and beyond as well.

Plus what is driving our weather in the weeks and months ahead, with the latest on El Nino/La Nina, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), the Southern Annular Mode (SAM controls our weather systems), and the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO connects tropical moisture to our weather systems).

I update this commentary each week, generally on Friday's. Make sure you are signed up (free or a subscription) so you don't miss an update.

Stay up to date with the forecast specifically for your area in our hour by hour outlook for the next 10 days. Download our app for iPhone and Android.

As always, you can see each of these graphics as soon as they update, as well as more information about them under our Rain Outlook and Seasonal Outlook pages within Jane's Update, along with our Snow Forecast in the snow season.