2025 had the fifth hottest February on record, reaching 1.64 °C above the 1961–1990 average. Rainfall was highly variable around the country, with some areas receiving record highs and others record lows. Several extreme events contributed to losses in the agricultural sector, including wind damage, flooding and heat stress.
Extreme Heat
Most areas of Australia experienced above-average daily minimum, maximum, and average temperatures. Queensland, however, experienced average to below average temperatures, due to a combination of heavy rainfall and onshore winds driven by tropical cyclones, troughs and low-pressure systems.
South Australia experienced its hottest February on record, with the highest maximum temperature of 48.7°C at Oodnadatta Airport. Hot conditions across much of south and south eastern Australia were driven by frequent northerly winds, which bring heat down as they cross the hot and dry interior of the country.
Wet North/Dry South
Northern Queensland and central northern Western Australia had very much above average rainfall. Fed by Cyclone Zelia, a Category 4 system, northwest WA saw damaging winds, heavy rainfall, and flooding in the Pilbara region, isolating communities due to impacts on transport infrastructure.
Heavy rainfall in northern Queensland in late January to mid February led to Major Flood Warnings in the Haughton, Herbert, Cape, Flinders and Upper Burdekin rivers. Impacts were region dependent, with some areas experiencing above average summer crop yields thanks to the available moisture. Other areas had to delay harvest or even lost significant crop yields from flood impacts. Sugarcane, bananas, avocados, fish and livestock have particularly borne the impact of flooding in northern regions.
Dry extremes in coastal southern Australia from blocking high-pressure systems are likely to delay summer harvest or reduce yields, as some areas have received little to no rain for the month of February, exacerbating an ongoing dry several months and year.
Extreme Weather Events
Fires started in early February for western Tasmania and remained for much of the month as hot and dry conditions were fed by frequently strong and gusty northerly winds.
Southeastern Australia swung from extreme to extreme, as heatwaves were broken by rain, hail and alpine snow events from passing cold fronts, to be replaced again by hot conditions, and then removed again by cold fronts. These fronts didn’t sweep north enough for Agricultural regions in western Victoria and eastern South Australia to receive significant rainfall, but eastern Victoria and southeastern NSW had several troughs deliver widespread storms and rain, contributing to above average rainfall and soil moisture in Gippsland and surrounding areas.
March Outlook
All signs are pointing towards a hotter than average March overall, with a very high likelihood of most of Australia experiencing unusually high maximum temperatures.
Pacific Ocean Index
Indian Ocean Index
Madden Julian Oscillation
Rain Outlook
Temperature Outlook
The rainfall outlook is far more varied than temperature. Overall, Australia is generally in the 50-50 range, indicating no strong push towards above or below average rainfall. This is highly dependent on where the rain is pushed after Cyclone Alfred crosses the coast, with those in the path of the remains of the cyclone likely to see significant rain. Most of central and northern Queensland are highly unlikely to exceed average rainfall thanks to the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) moving away from Australia, suppressing tropical activity in our region.
The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) indicate show our weather systems will behave, which are currently tipping towards troughs and lows instead of strong fronts. This means rains have the potential to be long and soaking for regions in their path. However, blocking actions towards the south of Australia can often prevent these soaking rains from reaching these southern regions, therefore, rainfall forecasts will be highly dependent on the path of the pressure systems in the south.
Looking further ahead, the Pacific Ocean (ENSO) has come out of a weak La Nina and is likely to remain neutral across autumn and winter. The index is heading towards the El Nino side of neutral.
The Indian Ocean (IOD) is currently neutral and likely to remain that way through autumn. There is the possibility of a negative Indian Ocean Dipole developing in winter, which would enhance the moisture available in Australia from the west.
Keep an eye on janesweather.com for the most up-to-date guidance from all global forecasting models and our AI Forecast.
Wrap Up
Be prepared for a March with above average temperatures overall and variable rainfall. Jane’s Weather’s heat, wind and irrigation tools will be particularly useful to identify upcoming significant heat events, and notifications can be turned on to receive timely alerts.
Stay informed with the Jane’s Weather AI Forecast, where weather variables are broken down hourly for the following nine days, and you can see multiple model outputs to evaluate uncertainty in your area. Connect your weather stations with Jane’s Weather to get localised forecasts for your property and receive alerts in your pocket for weather that matters to you.
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