After significant rain over the southwest of the country late last week and across the weekend, while the southeast was dry and frosty under a high, the pattern is changing.
The focus now shifts to the southeast, as a cold outbreak moves in.
It is anything but cold to begin (if you discount the wind chill). Melbourne should reach 19C today (5C above average), Sydney 22C - even Hobart should rise to 17C. That also means that the first part of this weather system is far too warm for snow on the alps.
These warmer than average temperatures are blown into the southeast on gusty northerly winds. Significant on Monday, but not quite rising above the damaging winds threshold (90km/h) except around alpine areas. On Tuesday, winds strengthen further, with damaging gusts likely over low terrain too - see the current warning areas.
Over the course of the next few days (mainly on Tuesday and Wednesday) there are likely to be some handy falls:
- 25 to 50 mm at the mainland's southwest facing coasts, and western/northern TAS
- 10 to 25 mm through a large part adjacent to the coast and in to the ranges
- up to 10 mm further inland/southeast TAS/Gippsland and eastern NSW (all in the rain shadow for this system's trajectory)
On the higher ranges and alpine areas it is more like 50 to 150 mm of precipitation.
I say 'precipitation' because the first part of this will fall as rain, before the cold air catches up and it turns to snow.
That change over in alpine areas is likely to be on Tuesday, from mid morning to early afternoon.
After that the alps are likely to see 30 to 70 cm of snow, heavy at times on Tuesday night through to Wednesday afternoon.
This comes with a punch of cold air, which is likely to let snow fall down to about 700 metres at its coldest point on Wednesday afternoon.
Conditions rapidly ease on Thursday morning.
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