Finally! There are lots of features aligning to make a proper alpine snow event occur early next week.
For much of this year we have had a ridge of high pressure sitting over southeastern Australia. This has blocked weather systems from moving through, limiting rain. We've had many rain systems develop over the eastern states, mainly in Queensland and NSW, and sometimes they've been able to brush eastern Victoria - but anything coming from the west hasn't been as successful in delivering wet weather thanks to that blocking high.
That may change early next week.
Over the weekend we'll see a cold front cross the Bight. We've seen plenty of these this year, and the majority slide southwards with limited impact over the southeast as the high is in control. This one is no exception.
However... this front falls on its sword so to speak, doing battle with the high pressure. It should be strong enough to weaken the high, laying the groundwork for the next cold front to blast on through.
That front arrives on Monday into Tuesday and it brings a burst of colder air. Critically it brings lower pressure than we've seen in a long time, one of the factors that has been limiting our rain and snow potential.
As this crosses through early next week, snow should develop on the alps. One model likes it very cold, with snow down to around 900 metres. The remaining three have it up around the 1300 - 1400 metre level at this stage, but even with that level, this all adds up to a proper snow system for the alps.
Amounts will become clearer as we get closer to the event. Look for all the different model guidance to start forming a consensus - all saying a similar thing.
At this stage, 10 to 30 centimetres isn't out of the question – but remember, it is falling onto bare ground so the first part is likely to melt.
The alps should look at lot more snowy in a few day’s time – just two weeks out from the start of the snow season.
