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Conditions rapidly clear up for a gorgeous Friday in light winds and sunshine.
High pressure moves to the southeast of the country and out over the Tasman Sea, trying to bring a lengthy dry stretch.
But there is a front that slides through later on Saturday. Felt most in Tasmania, while the mainland resorts may pick up a bit of snow on Saturday night. That comes after a dry day on Saturday with the wind strengthening.
That front is just a memory by Sunday morning with another dry day in the alps - lighter winds and cloud slowly clearing.
Monday is great - lots of sunshine as higher cloud builds.
-> That should bring four pretty nice days in a row (apart from the wind effects on Saturday).
Then it turns ugly.
In order to make it rain you need moisture and instability to work together. In order to make it snow you need to add cold air into the mix.
The weather pattern changes next week with a huge feed of moisture spreading across much of the country from the Indian Ocean. Wherever that meets up with low pressure we see widespread rain. This may come through in waves, firstly mid week, then again late next week/weekend.
The cold air ingredient is going to be a problem.
There is plenty of cold air... but it may not be in the right spot for us.
The cold air is likely to linger over the southwest of the country, and the Great Australian Bight - not over the alps.
This cold air is a source of energy, fuelling the widespread weather system - and it is able to keep going with wave after wave of precipitation, because the energy source remains to the west. Think of it like a fire that is constantly being stoked. Once you smother it, the fire goes out. Next week's fire will continuously be stoked by this energy in the west, only dying when the cold air smothers it. Great news for a lot of farmers that need the rain... not great news for the alps.
The higher alps are likely to see a mix, possibly falling as proper snow at times, particularly on Wednesday - but for the majority of the alps this one is ugly.
