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The big rain system in NSW, driven by a low off the north coast this weekend, only grazes the NSW alps with light snow on Friday into Saturday.
Instead we are in a stretch of sunshine and light winds as high pressure moves through. While the high is back to the west it remains cold, but once the centre of that high moves eastwards then the atmosphere warms up. This begins on Sunday.
-> we have a great weekend with full sunshine in the west and increasing sunshine in the east, along with light winds and gradually warming temperatures.
The next cold front peaks in the west over the weekend.
With the high blocking its path, that front will slide across the southeast later Monday and on Tuesday. 'Sliding' isn't great for us. We don't get a proper punch of cold air - but we also don't see the main precipitation, just the 'left overs'.
The next cold front takes a slightly better path for us, arriving on Wednesday - but again, it's not a direct hit, so precipitation is light. There is a hint of cold air, not a proper burst.
-> The first wave of precipitation arrives very late Monday in the west, or early Tuesday in the east. The snowline is likely to be up around 1800 metres, possibly 1700 metres. It may bring up to 5cm of snow up high on Tuesday.
-> The second wave of precipitation is on Wednesday into Thursday. This is slightly colder - around 1600 to 1700 metres. There may be up to 5cm of snow above this.
On the horizon we have a feed of tropical moisture spreading across the country, coming down from the northwest. Our Negative Indian Ocean Dipole in action. The question is: which low, front or trough will this moisture meet up with, and where will it move? If they work together over the alps then its our next big system, but it is not likely before the end of next week. And there is always the question: we may have moisture and instability, but will the cold air show up?
