This week's focus is definitely Cyclone Alfred. When we have high confidence on when, where and how strong the coastal crossing will be (ie when there is consensus across the models) then we will have a better idea of where the "left-over" rain will spread across eastern Australia next weekend into next week.
The latest guidance on Monday morning is in more consensus than recently, but still not "locked and loaded".
Here are the different paths and timings as it stands this morning, plus BoM's latest mapping (please keep in mind they are unfortunately always a run of the models behind the latest guidance you see here):
GFS/USA model - Crossing Thursday, around Sunshine Coast, large area of significant rain to the south
EURO - Crossing Friday, between Sunshine Coast and Brisbane, large area of significant rain for Brisbane and southwards
ACCESS/Australia - crossing Friday, between Sunshine Coast and Brisbane, large area of significant rain for Brisbane and southwards
GEM/Canada - crossing early Friday, around Brisbane, large area of significant rain for Brisbane and southwards
BoM's latest modelling (several hours out of date behind the model guidance above):
Keep up to date with the latest guidance for your spot. Look for the rainfall range to narrow to know we have better consensus, and therefore higher confidence.
Brisbane at the moment is not in consensus:
.png)