We’ve seen a powerful weather system move across the southeast of the country, strong and large enough to bring abnormally high tides, damaging winds, dust storms and a cold outbreak that is working its way up to southern Queensland.
A big system, but it was missing one key component to get significant rain: moisture.
A few spots were lucky, seeing more than 20mm, near Adelaide in SA, near Portland in VIC, and in parts of the central west in NSW (and, as always, about elevated terrain). There were pockets of good rain, not a widespread event.
Now, if you look at the Australian satellite, there is a huge rain system pouring in from the northwest.
Big rainfalls, widespread, even turning Uluru wet.
Will this reach the still dry southeast?
Unfortunately, no.
High pressure is once again acting like a block, ensuring this rain won’t be able to spread down into the southeast. Instead, the high will deflect this rain and push it across Queensland.
There is another weather system brewing. Arriving in the west from Thursday into Saturday. This should bring decent rain from the Pilbara right through to the southwest corner, and spread it well inland. We may see falls of 25 to 50 mm on that western coastline.
The leftovers from this, working together with a push of moisture from the Queensland rain, should move across the southeast early next week - but again, high pressure rears its ugly head, and deflects most of the rain from the drought affected parts of the southeast.
The west is not finished with the rain. Another system arrives early to mid next week, again from the Pilbara right through to the southwest corner and spreading its way well inland. This should be yet another significant rain event for a huge part of the west.
Then there may be a change in fortune - there is a chance this rain will make its way through to the southeast later next week into next weekend.
What could go wrong? A few things.
The window of potential rain is a long time away, in weather terms. The different guidance hasn’t settled on a consensus yet, so there is low confidence at this stage.
The high could once again get in the way, deflecting this rain elsewhere, or weakening its significance.
However, this is certainly one to watch.
