For the drought affected areas of the southeast there is a bit of rain on the horizon, with a system due early next week.
Most areas near the coast or south/west of the ranges have the potential for 10 to 25 mm. Some parts of northern and western Tasmania may see up to 50mm with heavier falls at elevation. This is better than we’ve seen recently, but still not drought breaking - and as it will come through in showers (which are by nature hit and miss) there will be places that miss out and only see a few millimetres.
If you’re inland, mainly north of the ranges on the mainland (from the Mid North in SA to the Wimmera in Victoria) or the southeast of Tasmania - this is the zone that misses out again, with only a few millimetres. Weather systems that come from the west naturally bring less rain to these areas unless there is a connection to tropical moisture which we don’t have at the moment.
There is another area of rain.
We’ve had huge rainfalls already, along with damaging winds, dangerous surf and major flooding on the NSW coast (mainly between Sydney and Coffs Harbour), extending inland to the ranges.
Some of this rain is likely to trickle down into western NSW, mainly the central west and Riverina, as well as eastern parts of Victoria and northeast Tasmania.
It’s a handy fall, with the potential for 25 to 50 mm over the rest of this week and into the weekend. If you’re on the east coast and looking for a dry day, there is a break coming from Sunday (but still plenty of rain to get through before then).
There is also yet another area of rain.
Looking to the northwest, watch for cloud building over the weekend with significant rain spreading over the northwest into the interior early next week. If you’re familiar with ‘juicy northwest cloudbands’ this is likely to be one of these.
These can be excellent sources for widespread rain over southern Australia. These systems can be responsible for taking big leaps in ending a drought. Will this one make it all the way to the southeast? Only if high pressure finally moves and lets this glorious rain in. That is the big question, and I’ll be watching those highs very closely.
