The southwest has soaking rain - and there are signs the southeast may have some rain on the horizon

Jane Bunn
April 14, 2025
5 min read

An active system is bringing soaking rain to parts of southwestern Australia, with some falls nearing 50mm, and a local fall of more than 100mm in Munglinup West.

In comparison, a weak system is sliding across southeastern Australia, and while much of Tasmania picked up 3-15mm, it barely grazed the mainland, with falls of less than 1mm at the coast.

Rainfall totals to 6:30am AWST on Monday 14th April 2025

The active system should progress easwards over the next few days, but you guessed it, it runs out of puff before it reaches the southeast, just sliding away.

Three day rainfall projections shows the rain reaching the southwest but not making it to the southeast

The next weather system has the potential to shake things up.

Now, it is nearly a full week away (due around Saturday to next Monday in southeastern Australia), so that means there is only low confidence at this stage, and as you would expect this far out, the different model guidance has not settled on a consensus yet.

But it is one to watch.

The next weather system doesn't bring much to the southwest, but it may pick up a little moisture from a cyclone off the northwest coast.

As it crosses the southeast over Easter there is the potential for high pressure to cradle it and make it slow moving.

If you're after rain in the southeast, this should pique your interest.

High pressure could be helpful rather than a hindrance - instead of making the system slide away it cradles it to make it actually pass through and do it slowly, which increases the rainfall capacity.

Some models have lots of cradling, letting a low cross the southeast, bringing widespread, soaking rain. Others aren't as generous, with the low sliding a bit further southwards.

This is certainly one to watch as it approaches.

The next weather system adds only a little bit to the southwest, and may bring 5 to 25 mm (or more) over the southeast - but confidence is currently low as it is nearly a week away at this stage

Jane Bunn
April 14, 2025
5 min read