Cyclone Alfred is well out to sea off the Queensland coast on Wednesday, not affecting any communities at this stage. This cyclone is likely to be on our weather map for an extended period of time, potentially affecting the coast.
You will hear a lot about Cyclone Alfred over the next week.
Cyclones are potentially destructive beasts, depending on the area they hit and the strength of them when they arrive.
The problem is, the guidance on where they are likely to move, and how strong they are likely to be, can change with each update - and can differ significantly for each weather model that produces this guidance.
As of Wednesday morning we had one model suggesting a direct hit on Gladstone next Tuesday, while another model has it more than 300 km away from the coast out to sea affecting nobody.
These are two incredibly different situations.
So, how do you prepare for that?
The thing that brings comfort to a meteorologist, and makes it easier to sleep at night, is consensus.
When all the different models are showing the same outlook I whistle a happy tune as I walk into the studio.
When the models are showing vastly different outlooks, I can be a grumpy weather presenter that has little confidence in what I am about to say.
Confidence is the key part. When you have consistency across the guidance, a consensus, you have confidence in the outcome.
At this stage, the range of paths that Cyclone Alfred could take are so vast that there is very little confidence in where this beast may end up.
If you live or work along the southern Queensland coast or the far northern NSW coast, you should keep up to date with the current location of Cyclone Alfred, as well as the range of paths that he may take. When the areas of uncertainty become a lot smaller, you will know that the guidance is in consensus and there is a lot higher confidence in where this beast is likely to go.
