I’m going to focus on the drought affected areas of southeastern Australia.
They stretch from Ceduna in South Australia, across the Eyre and Yorke Peninsulas to the Murraylands and South East, then across the border into Victoria, through the Mallee, Wimmera and South West… and now into West and South Gippsland. It continues on the apple isle, across all of western Tasmania… now extending into parts of eastern Tasmania.
It is an exceptional situation. This very dry stretch of land is ranked at a Serious to Severe Rainfall Deficiency - and some parts have recorded their Lowest Rainfall on Record.
In the past week, a large part of western Tasmania recorded 25 to 75 mm of rain. For those in the drought affected parts of the mainland that may sound amazing, a real game changer, even the end of the drought. But for western Tasmania, they usually see a lot more rain than that at this time of year, so it barely scratches the surface.
For the mainland drought areas, the past week has delivered 0 to 12 mm of rain.
That isn’t even enough to crack 20% of what an average May should bring.
In the next week, the potential rainfall sits at 5 to 15 mm (and when I say potential, it means that the activity comes in showers, which are by nature hit and miss - and while you could be lucky and see a bit more than forecast, you could also be unlucky and be in the areas that ‘miss’). If you’re north of the ranges, it’s more like 0 to 2 mm.
There is a weak system clipping the coastline on Wednesday, which won’t bring much.
There is another, slightly stronger system due on the weekend. This is a bit more promising - but again there isn’t the power or moisture with it to make a decent dent in the deficiencies.
Mid next week may have something better brewing - a better connection between low pressure and moisture to lead to widespread rain - but it’s a full week away, and we know that a lot can happen between now and then. It’s one to watch, not a guaranteed event.
May was projected to be a dry month, and this is a forecast that’s so far been correct.
