High pressure lingering over the southeast bringing unseasonable temperatures and limiting rain

Jane Bunn
May 5, 2025
5 min read

We're well into the first week of May, but the weather pattern doesn't seem to understand the calendar.

Melbourne and Adelaide are likely to be warmer than Brisbane and Sydney (and Hobart isn't far off).

The culprit? A high pressure system sitting over the Tasman Sea. Winds travel anticlockwise around a high, so that's onshore winds for the east coast, and warm northerlies for the southeast.

There's even a Fire Weather Warning for Extreme Fire Danger in South Australia's Lower South East district.

Another thing is... it isn't raining.

With such a strong high over the Tasman Sea, we have cold fronts try and pass through, but "fail" and slide away to the south. This limits the amount of rain we can get, as when a front finally has an impact, it's a small one.

Weather map early on Monday morning

Projected temperatures this afternoon

Most of the next week's rainfall is on the east coast in onshore winds, thanks to the high over the Tasman Sea.

The southeast has a little near the coast - but hardly anything inland/over the ranges.

The southwest is mostly dry during the week, with the next bigger rain system arriving on Saturday.

Projected rainfall over the next week

Jane Bunn
May 5, 2025
5 min read