Cold outbreaks - and rain - focusing on the southeast with more than 50mm for some

We’ve entered ‘peak’ winter weather patterns, with a series of cold fronts impacting southern Australia. The belt of high pressure has moved to its typical winter positioning, which makes the centre of the highs sit further north - up around the latitudes of Carnarvon to Alice Springs to Brisbane. 

This allows a conveyor belt of fronts to cross southern parts of the country, whisked through by the fast moving westerly winds over the Southern Ocean - ensuring we have a new burst of cold, wet and windy every day or two. 

In reality, it isn’t quite as simple as that, because the belt of high pressure isn’t even. Sometimes it has more dominance over the eastern parts of the country, and sometimes it likes the west. 

These preferences impact the cold front conveyor belt, making it more like a roller coaster ride.

When high pressure is visiting Queensland, then the top of the roller coaster ride is over southwest WA. This area gets the biggest rain, as the front is peaking there. Then the front runs out of oomph as it crosses the southeast, sliding down to the bottom of the roller coaster. 

When high pressure visits the west, then it is the southeast’s turn for the heavier rain. Southwest WA goes quiet, and the cold outbreak focuses on the southeast. 

This is the current situation, as we go through Thursday and Friday of this week. Cold fronts are peaking in the southeast, bringing rain, high winds, and air cold enough for snow on the alps.

The rain pattern has the heavier falls in areas that do well from a west to southwesterly airflow - matching the trajectory of the cold front - coastal SA; southwestern VIC up into the northeast ranges; the southwest slopes of NSW; western TAS. The rain decreases as you head inland or over the ranges, bringing much less to VIC’s East Gippsland, the NSW coast and southeast TAS. 

The focus shifts again on the weekend.

High pressure briefly visits Queensland, letting a front cross the west, giving the southeast a quick break - but by late in the weekend and for early next week the highs are back to liking the west, ensuring the fronts peak in the east again. 

So, if you’re in southeastern Australia, expect day after day with a new burst of cold, wet and windy weather - with only brief interludes between cold fronts, or when the high has a quick visit. Areas near the coast should see more than 50mm over the next week. And with such brief breaks, it means the big frost events are put on hold - to occur when the high makes a lengthier visit and lets the weather calm down for a few days (and frosty nights).