A quiet, less frosty period ahead, with the next big system brewing on the horizon

In the aftermath of the East Coast Low off New South Wales, things turn quiet in the eastern states for a few days. 

This break comes after huge rainfalls near and south of the low and the flooding that goes with it, the effects of damaging to locally destructive winds, plus the coastal impacts from powerful seas and surf. 

There isn’t a large pool of cold air left over, and that’s good news for frost. Frost impacts are minimal in these quieter days of light winds and sunshine.

The focus shifts to the west on Thursday with the next powerful winter system moving through. Showers, thunderstorms and gusty winds, typical for this time of year.

Our weather systems usually roll through from west to east (pushed along by the fast moving westerly winds over the Southern Ocean), but they do so on a bit of a roller coaster. The trajectory will have them moving northwards (the upwards part of the ride) and peaking over one part of southern Australia, then moving southwards (the downwards part of the ride) and fizzing out further east. 

This particular system has its peak in the west on Thursday, and that means it’s in the fizz out stage when it crosses the southeast from Saturday to Monday. Well hit parts of the west are set for 25 to 50 mm, while the exposed parts of the southeast will be lucky to see 15mm, with most close to 0mm. 

The system that follows has quite a different trajectory. 

Still in the upwards part of the roller coaster as it crosses the west on Sunday into Monday, this one reaches the top of the ride over South Australia, before weakening slightly as it crosses the southeast on Tuesday.

While there is a slide, reducing the rainfall, it removes all the resistance from high pressure, and paves the way for the next cold front to have a bigger impact in the southeast.

That’s likely to be next Wednesday into Thursday, with a strong front peaking over the southeast. This one didn’t touch the west, instead making a beeline for the southeast.

So, while there is a quiet period ahead, with high pressure dominating but lacking in significant frost, then a weak system passing through, there is a bigger one on the horizon that should deliver handy rain for the still drought affected parts of the southeast. 

Meanwhile, the Indian Ocean continues to undergo a slow transformation. Colder than average water is increasing on the western side, as warmer water lingers in the east. This imbalance encourages moisture to be pushed towards Australia - and can make the highs less dominating in the southeast. 

Moisture and instability are our key ingredients for rain, and it’s nice to see them starting to work together, giving hope for better months ahead.