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The main focus of wet weather for the rest of this week and over the weekend is in the southwest.
High pressure is parked over the southeast, ensuring all the weather systems hit the west.
The current pattern is a great example of how tropical moisture interacts with low pressure (the key ingredients for rain). The high pressure systems have parted over the west, allowing a feed of moisture from the tropical Indian Ocean to connect with low pressure.
This is a really great set up to ensure widespread rain.
There was a major burst in the middle of the week, then another major burst is likely to begin on Friday, lasting through much of the weekend.
We’re likely to see isolated totals over 100mm. Most in the 25 to 50 mm range. And not just at the coast - the west coast in this instance - the systems have enough oomph to push this rain well inland across the wheatbelt.
While all this rain is falling in the west, the southeast has cloud slowly clearing to sunshine, and frosty nights. But, it won’t last forever.
The next rain system for the southeast is due in the early part of next week.
This is another system that spreads through from west to east, just like the one earlier this week - and that trajectory is important, as it shows who gets the bigger totals.
In South Australia this area of bigger falls is in the southeast. In Victoria it is from the southwest up into the northeast. In Tasmania it is the west and north. In NSW it is the western slopes of the ranges.
That trajectory means Victoria’s east Gippsland, the NSW coast, and Tasmania’s southeast miss out, as these areas are in the ‘rain shadow’ - the dry side of the ranges.
Looking at the weeks and months ahead, we still have a neutral Pacific Ocean - not pushing the rain towards or away from Australia (with our own special source of moisture off the Queensland coast thanks to the warmer than average water).
The Indian Ocean is heading towards a negative phase, set to actively push rain towards Australia.
That means the moisture part of our rain equation is looking good. But as always, this moisture needs low pressure to convert that into rain.
