We have yet another week ahead of us where parts of Queensland and NSW see the majority of the rain while the south misses out.
A belt of high pressure stretches across southern Australia, encouraging onshore winds for the east coast. These pick up moisture from the warm oceans to our east and push it onto the coast, delivering showers. Meanwhile, the belt of high pressure stops any weather systems from having a significant impact along the southern coastline (and no impact at all inland).
The east coast onshore airflow will be enhanced later this week as a trough develops. Now we'll have not just showers near the coast, but instability to increase their activity and spread them further inland. They may spread as far as southwestern Queensland.
While this occurs, a stronger cold front heads for the southeast. It arrives on Saturday into Sunday with a blast of colder air. The coast picks up a bit of wet weather, but thanks to the high there is nothing huge there and only light falls make it inland. We'll see alpine snow but not a lot as there isn't a lot of precipitation. Then there is frost for the rest in the days that follow.
After the cold outbreak in the southeast, the energy that causes that turns into another burst of instability for the east coast. With the onshore airflow, that leads to significant wet weather once again early next week - and this one's chilly too.
All up over the next week, the east coast between about Fraser Island in Queensland through to the NSW south coast should see widespread falls of 25 to 50 mm, with local falls ranging from 50 to 100 mm. Inland parts of southern Queensland and those just west of the ranges in northern NSW may see 5 to 20 mm.
In contrast, much of the southern mainland coast is only likely to see 1 to 5 mm, with local falls of 5 to 15 mm (higher in southwest Tasmania but not the huge falls they typically see at this time of year with a front). If you're inland/other side of the ranges, it's more like 0 to 2 mm.
This dry spell was expected for May, as high pressure was projected to get in the way. Things look a bit better as we go into June.
