There is a little bit of snow on the forecast for later Tuesday into Wednesday this week - a nice to have but nothing special - but the weather pattern for the long weekend is looking much, much more promising.
Farmers and snow-lovers should both be excited about what is brewing on the horizon. We'll finally have a weather system that delivers for everyone.
A big rain system is crossing the west from early to mid week. This arrives in the southeast on Thursday into Friday. The trend of late has been high pressure dominating the southeast, otherwise known as 'getting in the way' - but that high is packing it's bags this weekend and taking a break.
We'll see the trifecta of snowfall potential:
- A 'cut-off' low pressure system slowly wandering over the southeast
- A connection to tropical moisture
- A surge of cold air from the south
The cut-off low is a big key here. It is separated from the fast westerlies to our south so that is can move on its own schedule.. and this schedule is a slow one, lingering here from Thursday through to about Tuesday/Wednesday. It is also supported by excellent upper level energy, and this is great news for providing enough instability to make this a big one.
The tropical connection is also key. Tropical doesn't always indicate warmth, but air that can hold a lot more moisture than air near the poles can. This is a key ingredient in taking a weather system from meh to good, from light snow to heavy snow.
The last one is cold air. Always touch and go for the Australian Alps - and this system will be no different. There will be periods of time during this weather system where there isn't enough cold air, but overall, and particularly from Sunday onwards, this has enough cold air to make it a great one.
As it stands on Monday morning (still a long way out, but at least not a full week anymore, and confidence grows the closer it gets), most major resorts have the upper projection of snow around the one metre mark.
Is this possible? Yes, but it's only one model that likes it, the GFS/USA model.
The Euro model is loving a good snowy outbreak, generally delivering 40 to 60 cm to the major resorts.
Australia (ACCESS) is a bit more on the fence. It keeps the coldest air back to the west for longer, so we don't get as much as with the other models - and the last model GEM from Canada really keeps that cold air to our west (as of this morning's run).
So there is still a lot of wiggle room here. Euro does have a tendency to be the most knowledgable this far out (great news!), but not always.
Keep up to date with the detailed projections from each weather model at the Advanced Snow Forecast (for paying subscribers).
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The trifecta of cold air (blue line), low pressure (1008hPa), and moisture:
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