Long Range
Madden Julian Oscillation [MJO]
How it works
This indicates the path of a 'pulse of energy' as it travels around the globe at the tropics. When it is near Australia, it encourages rain in our tropics, which can feed down into the southern states. When it is away from Australia it can suppress rain.
If the signal is strong (outside the inner circle) and near Australia (4,5,6), and we are in La Nina or Negative IOD, this encourages tropical moisture to push rain across Australia.
If the signal is weak (inside the inner circle) or away from Australia (particularly 8,1,2), it can mean that our feeds of moisture dry up (even with a warm ocean nearby). Rain is suppressed for this time over Australia.
The MJO can be the link between a feed of moisture from the tropical ocean, and cold fronts/troughs/lows turning that moisture into rain.
Trend for the future
Next week
2nd Week