Tuesday 7th Jun, 2:18 AM

The cold/wet/windy can't go on forever... can it?

If you don't like cold/wet/windy and you're in southeastern Australia, then the 10 day forecasts look bleak. I'll take you through whether there is any light at the end of the tunnel.

Southeastern Australia is in week two of an extended stretch of cold, wet and windy weather. The temperatures themselves aren't exceptionally cold (we get these conditions every winter), but the length of them in a row without a break is unusual.

The 10 day hour by hour forecasts continue to look bleak for much of the southeast (if you don't like that sort of weather [if you do check the snow forecast!), but they do show a hint of clearance after the long weekend.

If you're after a break from the showers and gusty winds... we should have some days with lighter winds and a bit of sunshine.

If you're after warmth... we don't have it.

In order for it to warm up we need a high to move over the Tasman Sea, letting all the warmth that is still up in northern Queensland come drifting back down into the south.

Problem is, we can't see day by day forecast details more than 10 days out (scientifically it just doesn't work), however we can see trends in the next fortnight and few months that can give us a bit of a heads up of where those weather systems could move.

If you haven't checked out our seasonal maps yet, please do. These show all the different things that drive our weather, followed by the outlooks for rain and temperature in the weeks and months ahead.

Some things to note about the drivers of our weather patterns today:

  • On Sea Temp Anomaly/Indian Index: the box off Africa has new blues in it, confirming we are heading into negative on the Indian Ocean outlook (a negative Indian Ocean Dipole -IOD, the Indian Ocean equivalent of La Nina). This makes the Indian Ocean send us more tropical moisture than usual.
  • Pacific Index: we are just out of La Nina and likely to hover close for the rest of the year. On the sea temp anomaly, the blue out in the Pacific and orange off Queensland indicates that La Nina effects will continue - ie the Pacific will continue to send us more tropical moisture than usual.
  • SAM has recently shown a proper negative signal for the first time this year. It takes a while for the model to 'catch up' but now there are further hints of negative in the outlook. That means the potential for stronger cold fronts coming up into southern Australia. That is what was responsible for the huge early season snow falls.

A heads up for next week (from Saturday 11th June to Friday 17th June):

Rain outlook
  • Much of the southeast dries out (there is one more surge coming up Saturday/Sunday, and the potential for a bit more mid to late in the week, but generally it is a drying trend.
  • There may be rain heading across the interior coming in from the northwest.

Min temp outlook
  • Nights really cool down. If frost is a concern for you please keep a close eye on the forecasts. Our alerts service will include those soon.

Max temp outlook
  • If you are after warmer days there really is no sign of them, except in southwest WA.
  • That means the high doesn't go and set up camp over the Tasman Sea, instead it is likely to remain over the Bight for much of the time, sending cold air up over the eastern states. The inland rain provides cloud cover, keeping it cool underneath too.

Our snow alerts begin on Friday June 10th for Premium subscribers - sign up under account settings to get these delivered to you each day (it's nearly ready!)

Then we will roll out the rest of our alerts service. I'll have more on what these look like as soon as they are ready.