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This week we take a look at how much warmer than average the waters to the north and east of Australia are - this is a significant source of moisture

When that meets up with low pressure it delivers heavy than average rain

The MJO shows us that this pattern is set to continue for the rest of the year and into early January

However... it's the weather pattern - where the lows, highs and troughs are - that determine who sees this rain and who misses out

This pattern is getting a shake up over the weekend - see which areas of the country are in the significant rain zone next

We also take a look at not just week 1 and 2, but also week 3 as that's Christmas! 

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See and hear my commentary as I take you through the weather pattern's effects on our rain and temperatures in detail over the next week, with a brief look at week 2 and beyond as well. 

Plus what is driving our weather in the weeks and months ahead, with the latest on El Nino/La Nina, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), the Southern Annular Mode (SAM controls our weather systems), and the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO connects tropical moisture to our weather systems).

I update this commentary each week, generally on Friday's. Make sure you are signed up (free or a subscription) so you don't miss an update. 

Stay up to date with the forecast specifically for your area in our 

hour by hour outlook for the next 10 days

As always, you can see each of these graphics as soon as they update, as well as more information about them under our 

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In this series I'll take you through the drivers of our weather, highlighting any changes over time and things to watch out for (generally every Friday). It covers weather elements like temperature and rainfall, and how they are driven by moisture from the Pacific and Indian Oceans, as well as bursts of energy from low pressure (SAM and MJO). 









Weekly Update: 6th December 2024

We are still in a pattern that pushes tropical moisture from the oceans to our north, into low pressure, turning that into widespread rain

The weather pattern is very stagnant - and one reason is high pressure in a jelly bean shape to the south, cradling all the lows to make everything linger longer

Huge falls over much of eastern Australia, while the southwest of the country misses out - see the projected totals and where the rain is likely day by day 

This lingers into December as we go through what's happening next week, and the following week, and a look at summer as a whole

I update this commentary each week, generally on Friday's. Make sure you are 

 (free or a subscription) so you don't miss an update. 

Weekly Update: 29th November 2024

A widespread soaking rain system impacts Australia over the next week

Fed by moisture from the waters off northwest Australia and the Tasman Sea and a little from the waters off Queensland (as we will continue to see this summer)

Slow moving troughs turn this moisture into rain that gradually spreads through huge areas (see the day by day maps 

One system over the weekend into early next week, potentially joined by a second system that will keep the rain coming well into late next week

The drivers: MJO entering our neck of the woods, we're in a negative IOD (reflected in the warm water off the northwest), the Tasman Sea is incredibly warm, and the Pacific is weakly sending us moisture -> all adding up to lots of moisture for low pressure to turn into rain this summer

Weekly Update: 22nd November 2024

Southeastern Australia is in week two of an extended stretch of cold, wet and windy weather. The temperatures themselves aren't exceptionally cold (we get these conditions every winter), but the length of them in a row without a break is unusual. 

The 10 day hour by hour forecasts continue to look bleak for much of the southeast (if you don't like that sort of weather [if you do check the 

!), but they do show a hint of clearance after the long weekend. 

If you're after a break from the showers and gusty winds... we should have some days with lighter winds and a bit of sunshine.

If you're after warmth... we don't have it.

In order for it to warm up we need a high to move over the Tasman Sea, letting all the warmth that is still up in northern Queensland come drifting back down into the south. 

Problem is, we can't see day by day forecast details more than 10 days out (scientifically it just doesn't work), however we can see trends in the next fortnight and few months that can give us a bit of a heads up of where those weather systems could move.

 yet, please do. These show all the different things that drive our weather, followed by the outlooks for rain and temperature in the weeks and months ahead.

Some things to note about the drivers of our weather patterns today:

On Sea Temp Anomaly/Indian Index: the box off Africa has new blues in it, confirming we are heading into negative on the Indian Ocean outlook (a negative Indian Ocean Dipole -IOD, the Indian Ocean equivalent of La Nina). This makes the Indian Ocean send us more tropical moisture than usual.

Pacific Index: we are just out of La Nina and likely to hover close for the rest of the year. On the sea temp anomaly, the blue out in the Pacific and orange off Queensland indicates that La Nina effects will continue - ie the Pacific will continue to send us more tropical moisture than usual.

SAM has recently shown a proper negative signal for the first time this year. It takes a while for the model to 'catch up' but now there are further hints of negative in the outlook. That means the potential for stronger cold fronts coming up into southern Australia. That is what was responsible for the huge early season snow falls.

A heads up for next week (from Saturday 11th June to Friday 17th June):

Much of the southeast dries out (there is one more surge coming up Saturday/Sunday, and the potential for a bit more mid to late in the week, but generally it is a drying trend.

There may be rain heading across the interior coming in from the northwest.

Nights really cool down. If frost is a concern for you please keep a close eye on the forecasts. Our alerts service will include those soon.

If you are after warmer days there really is no sign of them, except in southwest WA. 

That means the high doesn't go and set up camp over the Tasman Sea, instead it is likely to remain over the Bight for much of the time, sending cold air up over the eastern states. The inland rain provides cloud cover, keeping it cool underneath too.

Our snow alerts begin on Friday June 10th for Premium subscribers - sign up under account settings to get these delivered to you each day (it's nearly ready!)

Then we will roll out the rest of our alerts service. I'll have more on what these look like as soon as they are ready.

If you don't like cold/wet/windy and you're in southeastern Australia, then the 10 day forecasts look bleak. I'll take you through whether there is any light at the end of the tunnel. 

Every Tuesday and Friday I'll take you through the drivers of our weather, highlighting any changes over time and things to watch out for. It covers weather elements like temperature and rainfall, and how they are driven by moisture from the Pacific and Indian Oceans, as well as bursts of energy (SAM and MJO).

Sign up for Free or Premium Membership and have it 

As this is the first one I'll go into greater detail, then the following editions will be quick and easy to digest.

The current weather maps shows a large low (that brought the recent QLD and NSW deluge) moving out to sea. Only one surge coming into the southeast from the associated trough. A large high in the middle, and new troughs and fronts approaching the southwest.

That pattern keeps the rain in the south and gives the north a break (or a return to regular winter sunshine). The next 8 days rain:

From Monday to Sunday only the far southwest could exceed the average rainfall for this week in July. We are entering a quieter period. This doesn't mean 

 rain for the rest, but below the average:

This quieter weather means clear nights, and if high pressure takes charge there can be frost for those susceptible to it in the blue areas: 

We're still in a period of colder than average days in the north and east, while warmer air is likely to come in from the southwest. Again, above or below the 

 for this time of year - not a summer heatwave(!):

Looking at the two boxes of interest in the Pacific and Indian Oceans, the Pacific is now only very lightly shaded cool blue (and certainly not near a warm orange).  

The Indian box's area of blue has deepened in colour over the past few weeks. That is the sign of a developing Negative Indian Ocean Dipole (the Indian equivalent of La Nina):

So, the Pacific Ocean pushes a little moisture towards Australia (less moisture than over summer and autumn, but not the opposite situation - it's not taking the moisture away), while the Indian Ocean is increasing the moisture available to send towards Australia. 

This is helped by warm oranges around much of Australia to help drive that moisture in.

The Pacific Ocean shows we are out of La Nina (green area) but nowhere near El Nino (brown area). The Consensus of the models shows that we may enter another La Nina towards the end of the year (which would be our third in a row). No model likes El Nino:

The Indian Ocean models are all singing a very similar tune - Negative Indian Ocean Dipole (green area), coming out of it as we naturally do in summer:

This means lots of moisture will be pushed towards Australia for the rest of the year.

But... moisture is just one part of the rain equation. You can have bucket loads of it, but if there isn't any low pressure in your area, it won't produce any rain.

So, we look at SAM and MJO to see what the low pressure is likely to do.

After spending much of summer and autumn in positive, SAM finally went negative to bring a big dump for the start of the snow season. Then it went positive again and there's been a break in the snow while QLD and NSW were drenched:

If that signal goes back into positive green again, then further lows could impact NSW and QLD - but the neutral signal corresponds with the break we have for the next week.

The other driver is the MJO. It's a pulse of tropical energy, and whenever that comes near Australia it acts to bring the lows and moisture together, as we saw over the past week. This signal looks to be going back into neutral, then possibly into a drier phase. This could offset the push for low pressure if SAM goes back into positive.

That's a lot of info, and the next one will be just the highlights now that we are all on the same page. The next update is due on Tuesday morning. Make sure you are 

 (free or premium membership) to get them delivered to you. And as always, you can see each of these graphics and more under our 

Welcome to the first of our new series. Every Tuesday and Friday I'll take you through the drivers of our weather, highlighting any changes over time and things to watch out for. It covers weather elements like temperature and rainfall, and how they are driven by moisture from the Pacific and Indian Oceans, as well as bursts of energy (SAM and MJO).









8th July Update - The first of our twice weekly explainers on the drivers of our weather - every Tuesday and Friday 

The latest rain and temperature outlooks have been issued by BoM for the winter period.

I'll take you through what those forecasts are based on, clarifying what you are hearing about another La Nina and the Indian Ocean Dipole. There's another really important one to focus on too: SAM.

The map shows there is a high chance of above average rainfall across much of mainland northern and eastern Australia. 

For those that have dealt with floods so far this year, this appears as not great news. However, much of northern Australia actually has very little rain during winter on average, and it's 70%+ chance of above 

Winter rain is usually heaviest in the southwest, and over southeast Australia. 

These are actually the parts on BoM's winter outlook that show the 

lowest chance of above average rain this winter

The southwest and southeast (in correlation with lower chances of rain) have higher chances of above average daytime temperatures 

 this winter. The rest are starkly in the opposite, thanks to the cloud that is associated with the potential for above average rain. 

Remember, these are 'overall'. There will still be warmer than average and colder than average temperatures as the temperature swings based on the weather systems moving through.

The Pacific Ocean remains in a state to push tropical moisture towards Australia. As long as it is blue in the box out to sea, and orange off Queensland, this will continue to occur. 

We were borderline in the green area all summer (known as La Nina), and projections show that we are likely to remain in a similar pattern through winter and spring. No model likes the drier area (known as El Nino). 

This means that the Pacific Ocean should continue to push tropical moisture towards Australia for the foreseeable future. 

The Indian Ocean operates in a similar way. When waters in the box off Africa are blue, and the waters off Indonesia and northwest WA are orange, tropical moisture is pushed towards Australia from the Indian Ocean (known as a Negative Indian Ocean Dipole).

The box off Africa only went blue in the past fortnight (see the ocean map above), a projection all the models had forecast. And now that the index has plunged into the green area, all the models expect it to remain there for winter and spring, keeping a steady supply of moisture coming in from the Indian Ocean.

So, that is both oceans sending moisture our way, but that doesn't mean anything unless there is low pressure to turn it into rain.

SAM tells us what that low pressure could look like. 

SAM has spent much of the year in the top green area (known as positive), and very little time in the bottom green area (known as negative).

La Nina's in the Pacific Ocean encourage SAM to be in the top green area.

When that occurs, we are likely to see the weather pattern show troughs and low pressure systems over Queensland and NSW, possibly coming into Victoria. Instead of cold fronts in the southeast, there is blocking high pressure, encouraging drier conditions over southeast SA, southwestern VIC, and western TAS. 

If the centre of the high is over the Tasman it is warmer than average, if the centre of the high is over the Bight it is cooler than average. Either way, they block the strong fronts that bring this area most of it's rain, and it is a similar set up in the southwest of the country too.

You can keep up to date with all these maps each week in our 

, and rain maps day by day for the week ahead in our 

. Snow Forecast's are up and running soon - 

check out what we have for you this season

. And as always, stay up to date with hourly conditions for your spot under 

So, if you're in eastern NSW and have already seen too much rain, keep in mind that the oceans will continue to send tropical moisture, and whenever low pressure moves through it brings heavier rain than usual. In winter we see this in the form of east coast lows, and if you are located just to their south, the wind, surf and rain are damaging. 

For inland parts of NSW, VIC and SA look for breaks in between the high pressure systems, and a northwest cloud band indicating a supply of this tropical moisture from the Indian Ocean. Troughs, fronts and lows will turn that moisture into steady, soaking rain - but in a positive SAM strong cold fronts are less likely. 

For southwest WA, coastal parts of SA, southwest and central VIC, and western TAS, if SAM continues to be mainly positive, then there will be less strong cold fronts than in a usual winter, and that leads to less rainfall than average. On a positive note, it means it is less windy without the strong fronts.

For those looking towards a bumper snow season after two years stuck at home, the Indian Ocean sending moisture is a great sign. We have better snow seasons in a negative Indian Ocean Dipole. However, the Pacific Ocean's La Nina can lead to SAM being positive for much of the time - and that makes it harder to get air cold enough for big snow storms/dry snow/snow to lower levels. I'll have more on this in my next article. 

BoM's winter outlook shows above average rain is likely across much of Australia - but not in the southwest, or southern parts of southeast Australia. Here's why. 